This week, we start with President's day (U.S markets closed), then we get RBA minutes tom and Fed minutes (Wed) from the Feb meeting when they raised 25bps (any chatters of 50bps mentioned?), both likely to be on hawkish side (then again should hardly be a surprised!), EZ flash PMI's, UK/EU trying to hash out a deal on NI, G20 in India at the end of the week and the Fed's favourite data, PCE update on Friday
Ukraine, IMF reach SLA to initiate discussions on full-fledged program
Why ten years ago it was all about HFTs (equities cash and futs) and now it's all about 0DTE (options)? Because Options are now 70% of the notional value of equity traded on a daily basis vs 40% a decade ago, amazing numbers!
Inflation will be harder to bring down than markets think. Investors are betting on good times. The likelier prospect is turbulence / Economist
The Adani group’s decision to club non-current investments and security money put up against bank guarantees as part of cash equivalents has raised concerns among analysts about whether the new classification portrays an accurate picture of the group’s ability to meet financial obligations
Inside the White House’s view of the war as it enters a second year: There are growing fears that Russia is finding its footing, Ukraine may be overmatched in certain parts of the east and south and the West’s pipeline of weapons could slow to a trickle
Fed's Barkin : ‘Slow progress’ on inflation, sees more hike
China may be on brink of supplying arms to Russia, says Blinken. US secretary of state meets with top Chinese diplomat, Wang Yi, and warns of ‘serious problem for us’ if Beijing supplies weaponry to Vladimir Putin
Tai Says 2023 Will Be a ‘Gangbuster’ Year for EU-US Trade Ties/BBG
Foreign investors are scaling back their purchases of Chinese stocks as hopes for a reopening rally in the world's second-biggest economy give way to concerns about falling cargo shipments and lackluster sales of homes and cars. China central bank is less likely to cut interest rates or reserve requirement ratio after injecting large amounts of cash via reverse repos Friday, China central bank asks banks to slow down lending in February
Schnabel, One of the European Central Bank’s most senior officials said that investors risk underestimating the persistence of inflation, and the response needed to bring it under control
Markets :
FTSE100 8'000+ for 1st time in its history - fair to say though it has done very little over the last 20years, so one could argue it's got a long way to go, at least on relative basis
SPX500 'failed/topped' at 4'150, CTA's and retail would appear to have got long(er), if the market starts to think it's a ceiling (on valuation and/or higher terminal rate, or both..) then we could very well 'slide' towards 3900 again over next few weeks (JPY and YCC decision over next few weeks Very important too)
USD softened a little on Friday, ahead of President's day, Barkin seemed to be the trigger and thus risk held in steady defined range. Feb 24th will be important day for Ueda and JPY
Bonds : higher for longer, hikes extended, Terminal rates lifted higher, 5.25% in the U.S, the surprise for markets would clearly be if we 'have' to go to 5.5/6% range
China/US/UKR/RU tensions perhaps on the rise overall, even North Korea too
“The concern that we have now is, based on information we have, that they’re considering providing lethal support,” Blinken told CBS’s “Face the Nation” shortly after he met with Wang. “And we’ve made very clear to them that that could cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.''
Who could this possibly be..
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