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10y JGB's! how much longerok / EU carbon px / JNK / RBNZ +50bps / PMI's stronger / Long duration!




  • TOKYO :Japan's 10-year government bond yield on Wednesday breached the top end of the Bank of Japan's policy band for a second straight session, prompting the central bank to step into the market with emergency bond buying and offering of loans & Toyota agrees to give the biggest wage hikes in two decades in an early sign of momentum in pay gains

  • UK PMI's were stronger >>> rate expectations back to pricing in at least 2 more 25bps hikes >> and stronger in the U.S too S&P Global February flash services PMI 50.5 vs 47.2 expected >>> Trend of more positive PMIs continued. EU, UK and U.S yesterday

  • Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said “Without China's security, there will be no global security.” This is the honest truth. Hopefully that the US’ collective emotional intelligence can understand this sentence accurately, and don’t pose US’ security against China’s security

  • Around the world, a pattern has emerged that’s making workers nervous: People are living longer, but governments are running out of money to support their retirements

  • WSJ/In China, Worries About a Weakened Russia Prompt a Rethink. Concern that a Russian setback in Ukraine would cripple China’s partner against the West helps drive Beijing’s push for an end to the war

  • UK salad shortages to last ‘for weeks’, retailers warn

  • EU carbon hits €100 taking cost of polluting to record high

  • Chinese provinces give 30 days' paid 'marriage leave' to boost birth rate

  • New Zealand's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points to a more than 14-year high of 4.75% on Wed, and said it expects to keep tightening further as inflation remains too high, a hawkish signal that sent the local dollar surging, still sees rates heading towards 5.5%

 

Markets :
  • JNK - you don't want to worry when everyone panics (that's the time to buy) - well worth considering reducing now, if rates heading for 6% etc..

  • Dec 2023 rates in the U.S have moved 85bps in the U.S since early Feb NFP !

  • SPX500 towards 3900 - bottom of this range trade likely (chart below), sub 3570 would send alarm bells in markets - more pronounced in NASDAQ

  • USD remains firm(er), GBP reacted positively to PMI, focus on JPY next, USDJPY and crossses will move hard if YCC announcement comes on Friday - or a sign that Ueda is going to move YCC

  • Commodities softer, Crude softer, NatGas whaoo

 


>>> true madness hey, we need a recession to bring inflation down !! that's because the FED and other CB's were far far too slow to hike, and anyhow why is 2% right, why isntt 3%inflation the right number ?


Fancy this walk ? going there a the week-end...



yes...well do worry (reduce) when no-one is !!!






PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) EU gas market: mild winter, demand cuts, LNG and weak China




Again! so flipping sad!!




SPX 3900 - bottom of this range trade likely, below 3570 would send alarm bells - more pronounced in NASDAQ



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