FOMC later on today, vols moved up a little yesterday, short-term vols mainly VIX1D etc, lets see what Powell has to say >>> after todays 25bps hike (priced in), implied rates pricing in a 40bp cut by end of the year, this is what matters : ''what happens next'', complicated picture with still sticky inflation, regional banks issues and various risk of slowdown (manufacturing + commercial real-estate risk etc), Powell best have a cunning plan, ''who's going to stop cash leaving regional banks when MMfund rates are 5% tomorrow ? '' is a question I'm often asked these days..
Yellen warns that 1st June could be the X date (much earlier than the usually expected July time - her estimate most likely conservative, aiming at putting pressure on Congress). Echoing Yellen's concerns, the CBO issued a statement saying there was "a significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June."
Druckenmiller, the hedge fund investor and long-time deficit hawk, said the current impasse over the debt ceiling is dwarfed by the dangers of unchecked future government spending
Stock market reforms aim to revitalise City of London
They (the market) didn’t wait long to go after one bank ( after FRB fallout..) .. At some point yesterday, All 143 holdings in the regional bank ETF ( #KRE ) were trading lower
Markets :
GOLD back up on U.S debt ceiling issue and banking sector woes
CRUDE, 1month after the surprise OPEC+ output cut, we are back to pre cut levels
VIX1D up almost 100% yesterday... >>> with all these very short-term indicators/options, markets can do silly things day-to-day
USD remains soft going into FOMC - apart form USDJPY over the last few days, most USD pairs still struggling
Implied rates currently pricing a hike of 25bps today and some 40bps cuts by end of 2023 (and more cuts in 2024... pretty extreme inversion that has supported NQ lately...) - what happens in the strip 2023/24 rates is all that matters to markets
this is what most expect/priced in and hope for, thus implied lower into 2023 and 2024..
Banks cannot behave like start ups using a business model based on short term profits (cityam.com) >>> banks have to offer 'market' rates on deposit to keep deposits, but of they do their profitability will worsen big time, hence a very very tricky path for many banks
Ford Q1 earnings rebound as trucks and fleet sales drive profits | TechCrunch positive earnings, though EV part loosing money, it'0s getting very competitive out there (big investments etc)
Uber Q1 earnings: Ride-sharing giant meets expectations, bookings jump 19% year-over-year (msn.com) >>> must admit great service and much cheaper than officials cabs, rightly or wrongly this is where consumers go when times are harder
‘They can survive just fine’: Bernie Sanders says income over $1bn should be taxed at 100% | Bernie Sanders | The Guardian wait...what ???!?
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