Jul 18, 20233 min read

52.2c in China / RBA mins / ECB's Knot : core inflation plateaued / UKR grain deal off

Russia pulls out of Ukraine grain deal, in potential blow to global food supplies
Record-breaking 52.2°C temperature hit China on Sunday, stoking fears of drought
Credit Suisse inquiry will keep files secret for 50 years...why ?
RBA minutes reveal board almost hiked rates, warning issued about economy growth
Outgoing RBA governor Phil Lowe has spelled out the potential catastrophe Australians face if the central bank gets its interest rate calls wrong
Latest BofA Survey: Stock allocations have hit a 7-month high. 68% expect a soft landing vs 21% expecting a hard landing
Russia Steps up economic war with west, seizing assets of big corp, seizures of Danone, Carlsberg’s operations sound a warning shot to Western companies looking to exit Russia
ECB’s Knot: Looks like core inflation has plateaued - Optimistic to see inflation Hitting 2% in 2024 - We'll need to hike in July - More hikes shifts balance of risks toward too much - hikes beyond July oossible, not certain (similar to Visco) >>> even the most hawkish members aren't pushing for a Sep hike (for now anyway)
After freezing electricity prices in 2023, France is starting to catch up with the rest of the continent, lifting tariffs by ~10% from August >>> French inflation next ?
Better news (less bad!) for UK consumers as annual grocery inflation begins to fall ( down by 1.6% to 14.9%)

Markets :

Wheat prices on radars, after Russia pulled out of UKR grain deal
USDollar remains under the cosh, Knot's comments worth keeping in mind though!, with recent EURUSD rally (EURJPY lower worth consideration still) and weaker EU economic surprises, perhaps no wonder the most hawkish ECB member doesn't sound all that hawkish. EURCHF 0.9650 still no love, CHFJPY powering ahead again last few days
Equity markets, broadly speaking higher, DAX hasn't really mad any real advance for a while though
Crude holding up