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Writer's pictureStéphan

Altman back to OpenAI / NVDA delivers / FOMC minutes, RBA, BoE / Mag 7's / XPT vs XAU




  • Israel-Hamas war : four-day ceasefire and release of 50 hostages held in Gaza agreed

  • FOMC Minutes: The Nov meeting minutes was very similar to the last, ''continue to keep options open for further rate hikes and emphasized rates would remain restrictive for some time until inflation is clearly moving down sustainably to target''. Unlike the Sep minutes, there was no indication that another rate hike was likely, QT to continue

  • BoE's Bailey : 'Far too early' to talk about rate cuts

  • RBA (in the minutes) said it lifted its key interest rate this month to reduce the risk of a “larger monetary policy response” in coming months, given the persistence of inflation and the stronger than expected performance of the economy

  • OpenAI Altman, briefly to MSFT, and back, what a saga

  • The Mag 7, have been magnificent YTD - that's for sure, worth noting that by now they provide the highest concentration risk of any period in the SPX500 history >>> Hedge funds have bet over $200bn on the "magnificent seven". Crowding is now the most extreme ever, according to Goldman Sachs (short stock intrerest remains near the lowest levels in history:GS) >>> CTAs purchased $153 billion of global equities over the last 10 days, the highest amount ever recorded

  • NVDA delivers on big earnings, stock has rallied 250% in 2023 though

  • Novo rations Ozempic starter kits amid surge in use for weight loss

  • UK autum statement, government throwing a few goodies, mini tax cuts

 


Markets :

  • 30% of a Fed cut in March '24 priced in and a total of about 90+bps priced in for the whole of 2024, market has about a total of 1% of cuts priced in for ECB too

  • USD index closed below its 200dma for the 1st time since Aug, and snapped back overnight, particularly USDJPY as JPN governmetn slahed its view on the economy, 1st such move in abotu 10months

  • GOLD over $2K makes Platinum look super cheap #XPT

  • U.S equity markets - tech update below from Saxo

  • Uranium +$80 for 1st time in more than 15 years

  • Commodity prices to equity ratio, are at historical lows

  • Crude made a low last week and gradually moving higher again - after inventory build data, SPX refill likely and likely extension of prod cuts from OPEC+

  • UST 10's holding around key support in yield terms 4.35%, the likes of GS expect U.S fiscal discipline unlikely, and this steepening yield curve ahead in 2024

 




















XPT vs XAU - similar production costs, too cheap


WTI crude



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