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Dec 29, 20224 min read

APPL 52w lows / Negative-yield bonds : from $28trn, back to '0' / Covid restrictions - not again!





  • EU health officials seek joint stance on measures towards China, India (and others) make some moves on tests requirements and so are the U.S

  • Germany’s government is confident that a key refinery that provides Berlin and swaths of the eastern part of the country with fuel is well positioned to keep running even as the nation is set to begin its ban on Russian oil in the coming days

  • According to reuters (see below ZH article) citing new automotive pricing data from Edmunds, average prices for used Teslas in November were $55,754, down a whopping 17% from a July high of $67,297

  • UST yield curve has dis-inverted by 40-50bps since the last Fed meeting in mid-Dec, mainly as the 10Y yield has risen >> recession probabilities changed since?

  • Negative-yielding debt (globally) went from zero (2014) to USD 18 trillion (2021 and finally to zero within about 12months! - chart/thread

  • Energy giant ExxonMobil sues EU to block energy windfall tax

  • Virgin Islands Sues JPMorgan for Facilitating Epstein Abuse

  • Saxo special edition from Steen - podcast below - A look at ahead at 2023

  • Global Investment Banking Revenues are Beginning to Fall —WSJ

 
Markets :

  • APPL 52w lows - chart

  • SPX500 200dma looks far away now - 4015 (topped out very nicely in mid Dec in that 4050-75 region we were talking about). 56% of SPX companies are currently in their buyback blackout period; 70% will be in blackout by end of the week: GS

  • Earnings recession is/will be the buzz word going into 2023

  • NatGas prices on lows - thank you mild winter

  • USDollar mixed, same ranges all week , slightly softer USDCHF mind. USDJPY topping around 134-135 which is where it should for the bears

  • Bonds a little higher, yields down 3-4-5bps in long-end, ALL about the 1st NFP next week, will set the tone for bonds as we start 2023

  • BTC stuck in range, risk reward says upside Very limited, so we heading lower

  • GOLD holding up well in all this, central banks been big buyers last 6months/RBI, clearly a few gold bugs could come out fighting in 2023!

 

cup of tea, feet up, 30mins - well worth a listen


lots of new restrictions, not everywhere mind, let's hope for the best hey!

India will require test from most other countries around them, as of 1st Jan, etc








no-one writes or talks much about Syria anymore, it's still a mess





We’re headed for a recession that’s ‘double the normal length,’ according to the chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates | Fortune No need to agree or disagree, iot's worth reading the thinking of the largest fund in the world - food for thought, in our humble opinion, as you know, we think rates are higher for longer, and it means what it means to various parts/sectors of equity markets...



add SPAC's and a lot of the things that happened last 2years, and it's hard to argue against this.. that all said there was far too many of them 'companies' set-up on the back of a fag-packet.. (easy with rates at zero etc.. all sort of excess were created, as we been trying to pint out all year..), of course there are some very good sustainable ones, but not all of them will make it, bit like after 2001 one would imagine..



APPL share price - no matter what anyone thinks, it is 6% of SPX500 - it will matter either way



have a lovely day

Steph

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