ALL about long-ends, 30y UST yields up 30bps in just few days to 4.3%, Fitch downgrade was well overdue, fiscal stance questioned, fiscal cliff every year, risk management ?...cost of debt financing going exponentially higher
US NFP today is the 1st of few key data ahead of the Fed Sept meeting, U.S CPI next week
Underlying inflation in the euro zone has probably peaked, pointing to slower growth in other prices too, the ECB says >> likely to cement market's expectations for a pause in rate hikes in Sept
AAPL revenues were down 1% vs the prior year, that's the 3rd consecutive quarter of negative yearly growth and it trades at 32 P/E..high multiple and low/zero growth, AMZN was a beat, +11% revs yoy, well above expectations
-Latin America’s central banks, which acted much faster than their US and European counterparts to raise interest rates, are declaring victory in the war on inflation
-Achieving Net Zero Looks Like a Pipe Dream in Asia. China alone consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined, with India, Indonesia, and Vietnam not far behind. finews.asia looks at it all in the context of a record-breaking summer heatwave
-UST 10y yields now above the levels that triggered most of the issues across the 'regional' banking industry earlier this year
-BYD volume growth is insane. Not a true like for like vs TSLA (BYD sells both EV and hybrids), but a 10x growth in 2years is wild!
China eases entry visa and hukou rules in all-out push to save the economy
Warren Buffett says he’s not worried about Fitch’s U.S. downgrade and it's not changing anything that Berkshire's doing in the markets right now >> he is buying 3 and 6mos Bills....not 10 or 30y UST's...
Apollo chief warns private equity industry ‘in retreat’ as rates rise. Buyout groups must ‘go back to investing in the old-fashioned way’, Marc Rowan says
Oil prices rally in response to production cut extension in Saudi Arabia
Markets :
Investors underestimating risks that a structurally higher cost of capital environment does to the U.S govt debt (and others), but specially with UST curve inverted. VIX still mid teens, equity markets (SPX7s mainly) pretty overvalued and credit spreads totally supressed, watch if tighter financial conditions materialize from here
MM Funds AUM have hit $5.5trn with yields at 5% (1.5trn during the ZIRP years)
BoJ intervene twice in JGB's this week to slow bond sell-off
FED balance-sheet down about $750bn from Apr 2022 peak (only..), it expanded by $4trn in 2020-2021 period..
30y UST yields are up 30bps in just a few days, to 4.30% >>> fiscal responsibility being questioned...
EURUSD 1.0900 and 1.0935 are support, 55 and 100dma's and trendline support, Crude up and USDMXN up, sign that correlation breaking, unwinding of positions, don't own what the street owns.., Gas prices hitting new highs for the year
Equity markets struggling this week, AMZN saved the day, overall, would reduce on anything that is 'owned' and consensus
Such a poor delivery from BoE, they totally failed to see inflation coming 2y ago, when it was pretty obvious.... and now they won't see the slowdown till it's too late.. >>> HIGH for longer though, let's hope for the many they don't hike anymore
AAPL sales lower profit slight better due to lower tax, you cant justify a P/E of 32 when there is no growth.. and q3 guided small lower
Of course he would and of course he has to say that
Fiscal situation is much worse than it was even 6months or 3y ago..clearly..
Summary: Opposite to what happened in 2011, Fitch's US rating downgrade might prove to be bearish for US Treasuries for a straightforward reason: why would investors buy ten-year US Treasuries (AA+) at 4% when USD hedged ten-year Bunds (AAA) pay 4.25%? Not only that, but the "soft-landing" scenario and larger US treasury auctions spell for higher yields. Ten-year yields are likely to head towards 4.3%, while two-year yields are likely to test resistance again at 5.04%. Yet, the rise in yields will be stopped abruptly when something breaks, which is more likely to happen as yields continue to soar ....and
Better late than never!
UBC study finds owners of pricey Vancouver homes pay very little income tax | UBC Magazine these kind of things need to change.. 2nd, 3rd home or more, higher council taxes, wealth taxes and so on, rightly or wrongly it will happen, everywhere
EURUSD again, USD overall bid tone
Comments