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Writer's pictureStéphan

April U.S PMI 🔽 & EU PMI ⬆️ / #ARKK 🔽 / AUD CPI up, rate cut exp gone / Crude vols down, less geopolitical risk / Big U.S earnings tom and PCE Friday


  • The U.S administration wants to implement a 30% tax on the electricity used by #crypto miners... but wont touch data centers which is expected to consume 5x more electricity by 2026 according to the IEA (they should too..)

  • Why the U.S. government is working on sanctions targeting some Chinese banks

  • US PMIs: downside surprise for Apr, with manuf dropping back into contractionary territory at 49.9 (Consensus was 52.0) and services also dropping to a 5mos lows of 50.9, and services employment subcomponent fell to 47.3, the first negative reading since June 2020, meanwhile : Eurozone PMI signals a pickup in growth and Ifo business-climate index rose for a 3rd month to 89.4 in April from 87.9 in March, beating consensus expectations of 88.8 mainly thx to the service sector

  • Australia Q1 inflation slowdown disappoints, rate cut bets gone for 2024, Australia is “nowhere near” beating its inflation problem

  • US to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine ‘this week’ after Senate aid approval

  • The U.S. economy is unbelievable and booming says JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. A week ago, he said stagflation could be coming, 6 months ago, he said this was the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades (why so much talking?)

  • The correction in stocks isn't over, warns JP Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic, who still believes that the S&P 500 will finish the year at 4,200, and after being wrong over the last 18 months, Wilson has decided to no longer make bold predictions about the S&P 500, and 'the pullback in U.S. Stocks isn't over warns Goldman Sachs which notes that CTAs are modelled to sell stocks no matter what'...

  • Crude implied vol structure coming off, suggest less geopolitical risk.. (CHF, JPY, not a surprise GOLD had a profit taking dip too-war premium)

  • ''No other advanced economy runs budget deficits as big as the US and no other advanced economy finances its current deficit as aggressively with short-term issuance as the US (red). The US fiscal train is running completely out of control...''

  • Chinese Corporate Bond Yields fall to lowest level in history >>> CNH pressure coming ?

  • TSLA : negative cash flow of -$2.5bn in Q1, at this rate....2-3years left

  • Cathie Wood’s Popular ARK Funds Experience Rapid Decline

  • BoJ meeting coming up ''BoJ to discuss impact of accelerating YEN weakness, decision meeting to begin on 25th-Nikkei'' .... talk talk not enough, you need to walk

 


Balanced view as always from Ole - to the point What drives the gold and silver correction? | Saxo Group (home.saxo)






ARKK team has done well for their bank accounts though..




As expected




of course it does... which also means without china, price action struggles




Apple iPhone sales in China fall almost 20% in worst quarter since 2020 (qz.com) >>> remember China warnings, banning APPL products, they all buying Huawei now.. and here we are 2 quarters later (APPL shares moved down on this in Q1..one of the easiest hedge-short of the Mag 7 we discussed back then)





Platinum - #XPT - patience


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