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Writer's pictureStéphan

Aug market madness / UKR-RU, Israel-Iran-ME risk of retaliation / Harris leads Trump on economy / U.S CPI key on Wed



  • After a volatile July, we got a wild start to August, as expected! S&P 500 index fell over 6% & Nikkei 225 index recorded a more dramatic 20% decline, as #VIX pretty much halved between Monday and Friday, both indices recovered about half of these losses, main market focus – Hard or Soft landing? the debate will continue, employment data is slowly getting worse, consumers are tapped out on debt, inflation is hurting...This week,. main data focus will be US CPI on Wed and Retail Sales Thursday

  • UKR preparing for retaliation following incursion in Kursk region, while in Middle East, Iran threatens response, all out war etc, which has been down played by Israel, though many putting a higher probability of an Israel military action against Iran in August, beware

  • South Korea and the U.S. will start their annual joint military exercises, Ulchi Freedom Shield, from August 19-29, focusing on enhancing capabilities against North Korean nuclear threats

  • Tech Stocks just had their worst monthly performance relative to the S&P 500 in 22 years. But before this, they had their best month in 20 years. Absolutely wild!!

  • Harris leads Trump on economy in poll that marks sharp sentiment shift

  • US Election: Vice President Kamala Harris said she would respect the Federal Reserve’s independence, seeking to draw a contrast with her 2024 Republican rival Donald Trump, and that she plans to roll out elements of her economic agenda in the coming week

  • APOLLO: “.. there are still no signs of a US recession, and the US economy is doing just fine with steady growth in .. restaurant bookings, air travel, hotel bookings, credit card data ..“In short, Fed pricing is wrong, and the market is making the same mistake it made at the beginning of the year.” [Slok]

  • Container shipping costs from China have spiked to their highest levels since 2022

  • Bank of Japan owns ~80% of the country's ETFs and 7% of the entire Japanese stock market, according to Morningstar and the Tokyo Stock Exchange data!

  • Uber CEO Is skeptical about Elon Musk’s Robotaxi idea

  • The AI trade is losing its luster - or is it ? probably - after huge capex spending, and more to come into 2025, earnings must follow, #showqmethemoney time

  • BofA Merrill Lynch "Base case remains: Buy the dip, stay in the market, elections matter, but economic growth and Earnings matter more..."

  • #GOOG - FT/can anyone stop Google's illegal monopoly ?

  • China's 30-year Bond Yield drops to an all-time low of 2.33%


 



















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