A lot being written about whether the Ai bubble is about to come off the rails >>> so you been asking : IMHO, no-one can deny we've had bubbly markets last 6months! play accordingly, beware weak seasonal factors + U.S election + momentum clearly switched/challenged on Ai stocks, crypto, EV, on the back of weaker global growth (OIL, China, commods and USD, 2speed economy etc) >>>> could FED surprise and shock with 50bp in Sep ? quite possibly if NFP comes in well below 100K say
Crude : see below, big picture crazy plan from MBS since 2022, was played by the U.S and larger producers, the likes of Citi now sees $60 levels, though could go anywhere is Saudis go for shock therapy.. (Crude been weak for a while, China & Global slowdown, geopolitics have had little or no impact)
Two-thirds of Fed districts report flat or declining activity, Beige Book says
Markets : if you had a good run YTD, time to play defense !, FX , continue to sell CROSSJPY's, USDollar a sell vs JPY as BoJ talks hawkish, but USD probably stays bid vs others, carry trade unwind #stage2 ?
US job openings fell in July to the lowest since the start of 2021, with available positions falling to 7.67 million from 7.91 million the prior month. The figure was lower than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists
GS - "Our preferred near-term long is gold. It remains our preferred hedge against geopolitical + financial risks, with added support from imminent Fed rate cuts and ongoing EM CB buying,"
A Kamala Harris win and a Democratic sweep would give the biggest boost to the economy, Goldman Sachs says >>> Harris' middle-class tax credits would outweigh the decreased investment driven by higher corporate taxes, also in FT- Harris proposes 28& top capital gains tax in softening of Joe Biden's plan
China Weighs Cutting Mortgage Rates: on as much as $5.3 trillion of mortgages in two steps to lower borrowing costs for millions of families while mitigating the profit squeeze on its banking system
MS “.. Tesla continues to surrender EV share coming to 14% globally, vs. 20% share in June and 17% share on a YTD basis.” [Jonas]
Volvo Cars abandons 2030 EV-only target
Jesse Felder on X: ""The commodity secular bull market in the 2020s (11% annualized returns) just getting started as debt, deficits, demographics, reverse-globalization, AI & net zero policies all inflationary." https://t.co/UtQT6zio0u via @dailychartbook https://t.co/ZI1jxBwtXH" / X >>>> difficult to navigate short-term, ie next 3-6mos, but couldn't agree more, add exposure on dips
Javier Blas on X: "OPEC+ faces a quagmire: It can delay its 4Q output hike to defend prices >$75. But that doesn't resolve the big S/D 1H 2025 surplus. If OPEC+ wants to defend prices then, it would need to cut output, rather than delay hikes. Simply, the oil price Saudis want is too high." / X and Javier Blas on X: "Some statistics: Saudi oil production is today lower than 20 years ago. Oil prices, adjusted by inflation, are the same as in 2004. Saudi population has increased >50% in the last 20 years. #OOTT #SaudiArabia" / X looks like crude market could be drowning in oil over next 2years..!
Crude
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