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May 8, 20234 min read

Berkshire Hathaway takeaways / Share buybacks / Yellen / SPX 'concentrated' perf / U.S CPI next



  • Rice production for 2023 is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades, according to Fitch Solutions, let's hope there are some big reserves out there!

  • SNB's Jordan Joins Finma in Defending Credit Suisse AT1 Wipeout

  • Yellen warned there are "no good options" for solving the debt limit stalemate other than Congress lifting the cap, even as Senate Republicans dug in their heels. The Treasury secretary also told ABC that Joe Biden taking unilateral action would provoke a constitutional crisis. Her comments came a day after 43 GOP senators including Mitch McConnell said they'd oppose increasing the ceiling without spending cuts

  • "Corporate buyback announcements continue to boom this earnings season, with the S&P 500 companies announcing almost $200bn worth in the last 3 weeks, and over $300bn in the last 3 months" -DB

  • Texas : An explosion and fire wracked a refinery in a Deer Park industrial complex jointly owned by Mexican oil company Pemex and Shell Chemicals on Friday >>> multiple train derailments, chemical plant explosions, the U.S should spend on infrastructure!

  • Kenya President Says Africa Presidents wont be summoned like kids by World Leaders anymore

  • The recent performance has been very concentrated. 97% of SPX YTD performance comes from 15 stock

  • In Turkey, an election reckoning for the rise and fall of Erdogan's economy

  • U.S Banks with less than $250 billion in assets account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending. Small banks account for almost 70% of all commercial real estate loans outstanding/thread

  • Vietnam reported its highest ever temperature of 44.2C over the weekend and the Philippines cut classroom hours after the heat index reached the “danger” zone, reflecting the potentially deadly combination of heat and humidity

  • Swiss lawmakers last week decided that speeches in Parliament can no longer be delivered in Swiss-German – the local dialect that about 65% of the nation speaks

  • "The collapse of four US banks in the last few months with over US$500 billion in combined assets is hard to dismiss, especially in the context of a slowing economy, reined in by policy rates that have risen sharply over the last year and capped by this week’s 25bp hike." - MS

 

Markets :

  • Crude well off recent lows, better data reducing recession fears, and you'd hope Biden is filling the SPR!

  • Bonds : 2y UST yields 'holding' 3.80% last week, U.S CPI next.. >>> 50bps range month-do-date in Sep SOFR, and it's only the 8th

  • Raising rates and raising the debt ceiling, a a pretty toxic mix

  • USD remains under the cosh really, doesn't seem to hold on to any short-term daily rallies, even AUDUSD been doing a little better (finally?), CAD did very well too, MXN continues to strengthen past below 18 area

  • SPX500 held where it should have 4050 area, short covering in few regional banks (talks short selling ban in a market that was too short, as said late last week..) helped improve sentiment/narrative on Friday together with AAPL share buyback/earnings report

  • Commods : seen short term lows ? together with crude ? and still softer USD..

 





Goldman: "We expect that the lending standards measure for C&I loans in the Fed’s April Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey tightened by 15.4pt to 60.2, reflecting an increase of 33.3pt to 77.0 for small banks and a more modest increase of 10.3pt to 56.0 for large banks."





Surely not, and ''sorry you can't increase your mortgage by Xxxx because you now have a child''





Astonished this went through tbh - Swiss lawmakers this week decided that speeches in Parliament can no longer be delivered in Swiss-German – the local dialect that about 65% of the nation speaks


USD weak vs most currency pair, here is USDMXN..




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