Berkshire's cash pile hit another record at $189bn, sells 13% of AAPL in Q1 2024
U.S NFP slightly below expectations, only the 4rth downside surprise since March 2022 >>> 2y rates off about 20-25bps from peak 2weeks ago, down to 4.8%, Janet has a lot of UST paper to sell this week, $125bn combined, with $25bn of 20y
FOMC : “I don’t see the stag or flation actually,” Chair Powell riffed somewhat uncharacteristically off-the-cuff during the post-FOMC meeting press conference when asked about the risk of stagflation facing the US economy, message pretty clear, next move is not a hike, has confidence inflation moving towards 2%, slight delay but path clear towards year-end. Importantly, the FOMC’s decision was unanimous and the FOMC statement maintained an overall easing bias.
FT-Russia plotting sabotage across Europe, intelligence agencies warn
Assessments suggest Kremlin agents preparing covert bombings, arson and attacks on infrastructure
Copper : At $10K per ton, Chinese fabricators literally go into buying strike as they cannot pass these higher feedstock prices on to consumers
The UST yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days >>> has only happened 3x since 1920: in 2008, 1929 and 1974. All 3 times saw some large risk correction overall, one market perception that could change is if we head into some sort of recession or hard landing, towards the end of 2024
“I don’t think anyone at this table has any idea of how to use it [$189B in cash] effectively, and therefore we don’t use it. We only swing at pitches we like… today things aren’t attractive. We’re not using it at 5.4%, but I wouldn’t use it at 1% either. But don’t tell the Federal Reserve that. I don’t mind at all, given current conditions, building our cash position. When I look at the equity markets and the composition of what’s going on in the world, we find cash quite attractive.” Warren Buffett
Semper Vigilantes on X: "Thoughts on #Gold (and silver) from the GOAT: A 🧵 Keep Reading 👇 1/3 https://t.co/sxsgETgdBC" / X (twitter.com)
China’s EV makers, unfazed by US, European export curbs, will push overseas vehicle shipments to new heights, analysts say | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)
Michael Pettis on X: "George Magnus: "If fiscal support is limited and monetary easing prevails, a weaker renminbi will aggravate China’s deeply embedded financial imbalances and its endemic proclivity to overproduction and exports." https://t.co/oJ1sqKZ6Tc via @ft" / X (twitter.com)
USDJPY - they could push it down towards 145 - but they will need to signal hikes inJapan and/or hope for U.S inflation to come in lower
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