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Writer's pictureStéphan

Biden lands shortly in Israel / MOVE index / US tightens rules on AI chip sales to China



  • US President Joe Biden is expected to arrive in Israel shortly, as both Israelis and Palestinians deny responsibility for a hospital explosion in Gaza last night

  • Morgan Stanley's Wilson (insisting..) says the average stock is breaking down, S&P 500 to fall to 3,900 by year-end

  • JPM raised U.S Q3 real GDP growth forecast to 4.3% from 3.5%, recession? not yet that's for sure

  • US tightens rules on AI chip sales to China in blow to Nvidia. Biden administration’s move aims to limit country’s access to advanced processors

  • Richmond Fed's Barkin: The Fed has 'time to see' if further rate hikes needed >>> plenty of Fed speakers all week

  • China data cam in better than expected, Q3 GDP 4.9% YoY (4.3% exp). Xi announces major steps to support high-quality Belt and Road cooperation

  • MAS to inspect Credit Suisse for money laundering case

  • China tells Gas suppliers to fill storage tanks ahead of winter. Regulator’s instruction underscores nerves over global supply/BBG

  • UK inflation rate remains at 6.7% for September, sticky!.. UK inflation fails to slow as forecasted by BoE's Bailey. UK employers see pay growth slowing to 5% in 2024

  • Nvidia warns of product snags from tightening US Chip rules

  • Country Garden: China property giant default fears grow

  • BoA reported a pre-tax income of some $48bn for 1st half of 2023, with a total of $96bn in negative MtM in their UST bonds holdings 'held to maturity', no wonder markets are sceptical.. (and it got worse in Q3..)

 
Markets :
  • U.S 2y yields hit highest levels since 2006 >>> markets now pricing in a 60% chance of a hike in Dec or Jan, Dec meeting is definitely 'alive'

  • -Bond vols, MOVE index, vols staying at elevated levels for weeks, like pre 2009 period

  • USDollar mixed, CROSSJPY's refusing to move lower, simply a yield play, JPY not doing it's usual 'safe haven' as it did years ago, only GOLD and CHF doing what they usually do

  • Equitiy markets, imho, SPX500 is 4200-4400 range, awaiting developments o geopolitical side of things in ME and earnings, technically anyone can argue their side, will remain 'cautious' and ready to look for opportunities and add for clients on better valuations

  • Crude WTI still below $90, pretty quiet when you consider we were mid 90's 1month ago

  • GOLD the shining start in this environment

 








Bad strategic timing


Country Garden draws closer to debt deadline, as default risk looms (msn.com) >>> once upon a time a $30bn market cap, now desperately trying to avoid default on a 15mio usd coupon on outstanding loan risk there are others : Gemdale Plunges on Chairman’s Resignation and Debt Concerns (caixinglobal.com)


Moderna reaffirms annual COVID vaccine sales forecast (msn.com) stock is down 80% since Dec 2020 when FDA issued the emergency use authorization for its vaccine, amazing








Gold prices - drifting higher



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