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Writer's pictureStéphan

Biden odds way down / Powell's speech recap / #JPY / UK election up next, stability returning / #ChatGPT



  • Biden is on his way out.. (Predictit - betting exchange - see below), Kamala favourite, Newson and Michèle Obama next up

  • Jay Powell says US needs to cut deficit ‘sooner rather than later’-FT >>> >>> consistent message from JPow, the markets will react to the U.S presidential polls and when Biden goes, Mag7's near highs together with indices

  • Goldman Sachs notes of the recent disconnect in the historical relationship of #USDJPY and the real interest rate differential.  While there are theories to explain this, none are conclusive.  Goldman Sachs continue to expect weakness in the yen, but the latest round of depreciation may prompt intervention from Japanese authorities >>>> you cannot have it both ways BoJ, it's either rates or JPY..

  • Britain could become ‘island of stability’ as Macron debt crisis consumes France, says UBS >>> #GBPCHF

  • "America’s Census Bureau produces the best estimates. It finds that only 5% of businesses have used AI in the past fortnight. Even in San Francisco many techies admit, when pressed, that they do not fork out $20 a month for the best version of ChatGPT"

  • Manufacturing Construction Spending in the US continues to hit new record highs, more than tripling over the last 3 years

  • EU is drawing up plans to impose customs duties on cheap goods bought from Chinese online retailers including Temu, Aliexpress and Shein. The European Commission later this month will suggest scrapping a current €150 threshold under which items can be bought duty-free.-FT

 

Presidency (predictit.org) Biden all but going..






- disinflation trend appears to be resuming, need more confidence before cutting

- Fed does not see 2% inflation this or next year

- budget deficit very large and unsustainable

- 4% unemployment is still very low rate

- Moving too fast risks inflation returning












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