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Writer's pictureStéphan

Biden proposes capital gains tax to 44.6% / #NVDA #META back to 2y trend? / UBS AT1/ All eyes and ears on BoJ now tonight and U.S PCE tom


  • JPY crumbling as BoJ meets, will they walk the walk or just continue talking >>> results of meeting tomorrow morning very early + JPN CPI (tricky to navigate), META (which was priced to perfection..) lost about $250bn market cap after hours, Boeing & the likes of TSLA burning cash, PCE tomorrow morning as well

  • #META #NVDA too far too fast, back to 2y trend ? chart below the buy the dip crowd will no doubt hump in in short-term, but over time..

  • Biden propose increasing capital gains tax rates to 44.6%, highest since 1922

  • Gold is not yet back to its old highs in real terms (for that to happen, gold needs to rise 40%) and gold is inexpensive against other real assets such as equities/UBS

  • Home buying conditions (U.S) have fallen off a cliff Current levels have NEVER been seen since in the last 60+ years

  • China has issued its third once-a-decade policy opinions for the development of its capital markets.  Goldman Sachs notes that the previous two releases of the policy document, in 2004 and 2014, ushered in periods of structural growth in Chinese equities

  • Bloomberg: "After years of fits and starts, Venezuela is setting the stage for one of the largest and most complex debt restructurings in decades — unwinding a $154 billion web of defaulted bonds, loans and legal judgments."

  • Russian Court Freezes JPMorgan Assets Under $440 Million Claim

  • UBS faces new lawsuit by Appaloosa over Credit Suisse $17 bln bond wipeout

 


The source of the 44.6% rate is a footnote from the General Explanations of the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Proposals, and it reads in relevant part: “A separate proposal would first raise the top ordinary rate to 39.6 percent … An additional proposal would increase the net investment income tax rate by 1.2 percentage points above $400,000 … Together, the proposals would increase the top marginal rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends to 44.6 percent.”





It took over a decade to build internal consensus. Many considerations that shifted with the changing FOMC composition as well as economic conditions





Well put together by LC ! it's a different view from those looking for a CNH deval - well constructed points




#META - too far too fast 400-425$ probably


#NVDA - too far too fast, $600-650 probably



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