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Blackstone's BREIT / ChaGPT block / ISM Manuf soft / RBA holds / Trump / CS AGM




  • Finland is today set to become the 31st member of NATO, completing a tumultuous process of accession sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that upended the European security landscape

  • "SPR releases in the US and in France, and the refusal to refill the US SPR in fiscal year 2023 (although WTI reached lows that were previously characterized as sufficient to refill) contributed to the OPEC+ decision to cut" - GS >>>> the timing of OPEC+ to maximum pain is almost perfect

  • ECB Warns of risks posed by €1 Trillion Real Estate Funds (it's already moved a lot but ok..)

  • UBS : Ermotti said 7years ago that there was only space for -1- big bank in CH. Had Credit Suisse not been sold to UBS, it would have gone bankrupt next trading day, causing global financial crisis, SNB's Schlegel said >>> AGM today - link to Webcast below

  • BERIT : Blackstone clients asked to pull $4.5bn from a closely followed real estate fund in March, even as the firm’s executives were promoting investment opportunities in the sector that they said would arise from US economic turbulence, only $666mio were allowed to be withdrawn >>> money travels fast from one pocket of liquidity to the next, it's not all as easy as transferring cash from one bank account to a MM Fund, using a mobile phone..

  • After Italy, Germany considers banning ChatGPT cver data privacy issues

  • Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDP growth tracking is down to 1.7% vs the 3.5% est less than two weeks ago. Notably weaker momentum as we head into Q1 earnings season, ISM was pretty weak yesterday coming in at 46.3 - lowest since May 2020

  • Trump flies to New York, gets ready for historic arrest

 

Markets :
  • Crude, as argued last week, one way or another, after #capitulation - it's time to step in

  • USDollar remains soft(er) after weaker data, US yields dropped yesterday on weaker U.S data with 2y UST back below 4% area

  • Equity's momentum as we pick up Q2 remains firm, still a few too many shorts out there ahead of Easter week-end possibly, seasonality and low vols helping clearly, earnings reports next.SPX500 resistance around 4100. DAX just 500points off all time highs set in late 2021 - amazing

 


RBA makes surprising decision on official cash rate (brokernews.com.au) And..Australia bans TikTok on government devices over security concerns



Steen's latest / Summary: The sudden demise of Silicon Valley Bank and ensuing turmoil in banks has laid bare the vulnerabilities of many banks and the risk that rising bank funding costs will impact the credit cycle and bring recession risks dramatically forward. But expectations for both the speed of the incoming economic impact and for the Fed to cut rates already in Q3 looks unrealistic.


JPMORGAN: “Any decline in yields is not a sign that the FED is about to bring a punch bowl .. but rather a sign that recession probability has increased. .. we believe stocks are set to weaken for the remainder of the year and one should be [underweight] from here.” [Kolanovic]


Blackstone fund hit by $4.5bn in withdrawal requests despite property pitch | Financial Times (ft.com) >>> Blackstone restricting redemptions on their flagship real estate fund (BREIT) for the 5th month in a row and effectively locking the door for investors that want out.






Whaoo, who would have thought !!?





DAX was around 12K in early October 2022 - what a rally




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