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BoE & Chancellor join forces / US 30y mortgage 7.15 / 138JPY key / NQ rebalancing / U.S CPI next

  • Jul 11, 2023
  • 3 min read


  • UK wages still strong! Andrew Bailey and Jeremy Hunt join forces to demand UK wage restraint. BoE governor and chancellor signal their determination to curb high inflation in Mansion House speeches

  • Bullard speaks tonight, europe + U.S inflation data tomorrow pretty key

  • Demand for European bond ETFs hits record high in first half. Fixed income bonanza comes as global exchange traded fund assets reach $10.3tn and surpass prior peak

  • Sweden becomes NATO member, ''will join soonest possible'' >> "my message to those countries who are not yet spending 2% of GDP, the threat is real. We can't act when the crisis is here, we have to act before" , Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas speaking to reporters at the NATO summit. NATO to give Ukraine ‘clear and positive message’ on membership path: Stoltenberg

  • North Korea threatens ‘shocking’ consequences after claims of US spy plane incursion. Kim Yo-jong, the sister of Kim Jong-un, has claimed North Korean planes repelled a US spy plane

  • U.S average interest rate on a 30y mortgage rose to 7.15%, highest since October 2022 (highest level in 2008 was 6.6% - to put things in context, housing affordability hit a new low and average credit card int rates is now 22% in the U.S

  • Fun fact is LNG-related shipping will soon overtake oil supertankers as kings of the ocean

  • Shortages of battery metals and other critical minerals are looking less likely to stymie the transition to a low-carbon economy, the IEA says

 

Markets :

  • SPX500, BIG short been halved lately, we keep 4450 as resistance for now, CPI up next, expected to be lower, core will be key though as usual

  • FXland, we stay short CROSSJPY's, lower the stop below entry price and run it ! USDCNH slighly softer/off highs, CABLE higher, YTD highs again, generally soft USD touch ahead of inflation data

  • UST : market pretty (by some measures extremely) short TY, ahead of inflation data

  • Crude grinding higher, seems base in place below $70 WTI, not that it should race much higher for now ''up on supply cuts, demand hopes''

 


Today we look at the market sentiment stabilizing overnight as China moved to extend support to the property market. With yields edging lower still yesterday, the JPY rally picked up further momentum - is that move chiefly positioning drive and will the US CPI data tomorrow offer support for USDJPY or accelerate its decline? We also discuss the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing that is set for next week and whether this will trigger notable volatility in especially the very largest cap US stocks. Elsewhere, we discuss UK yields dropping after mixed labor market and earnings data, gold making a bid at rallying through resistance and crude oil trading into range highs. This and more on today's pod











Grass is not always greener elsewhere...cost of living through the roof, same in Ozland etc





USD - $ bulls would not welcome a move below 138JPY







 
 
 

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