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Writer's pictureStéphan

BoJ, FOMC, BoE today & ECB Sep recap / #USDJPY / #SPX #QQQ market swings unreal, huge July rotation, same in Aug ? / Happy Yorkshire ! and Swiss national day



  • UN Security Council countries express alarm over risk of all-out Middle East war

  • FOMC modestly dovish, depending on how you slice it, 25bps coming in Sep and pall priced in for a while, markets more than dovish than the actual statement. BoJ cut as we all know, nothing till next April now...might be time to TP on JPY longs.. BoE up next today, a little more than a 50/50 chance of a cut, finally Eurozone July inflation gave the #ECB no green light to cut in Sept yet, but markets still price 96% probability for another 25bps ECB cut

  • ADP says 122,000 jobs added in July. Smallest gain in six months points to weaker labor market, NFP tomorrow so let's see.

  • #OpenAI Touts New AI Safety Research. Critics Say It’s a Good Step, but Not Enough >>> AI company recommends more AI to solve AI's problems ..

  • Project 2025 director steps down amid Trump campaign criticism

  • Rio Tinto reaches ‘inflection point’ as growth projects boost prospects. Chief executive refuses to rule out looking at large takeovers as copper and aluminium gains offset weaker iron ore

  • EU firms resist European Commission plan to screen private investment in China

  • BOJ : finally moved. Nomura now assumes another rate hike in April 2025 as their main scenario. An additional rate hike is now likely at the April 2025 MPM, and they see near-term downside risks for yen-crosses

  • SPX bounced right on that massive trend line >>now above the 50 day again.... and month-end flows pushed short-term signals to overbought already, the market cap swings (down and up) previous 48hours been the largest EVER i believe...totally insane

  • GOLD : highest monthly close ever

  • Crude up, middle concerns

  • #USDJPY go back few weeks ago, we discussed possible target 148-150 USDJPY and equivalents in crosses, we got that overnight, if you been riding on long JPY side, never hurts to take some P

  • #GBPUSD breaking down through key support 1.2800 area, 1.25 again? - #EURUSD similar picture, all oin all CROSSJPY's should struggle to rally

 


-Unch for the 8th time, no rate cuts until confident inflation is moving to 2%

-Inflation eased but remains 'somewhat elevated', although 'some progress' made

-risks on both side of the dual mandate, employment rate has moved up but still low

-Is a Sep cut nailed on ? point is its already priced in












SPX500 - fade it again ?



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