Busy week ahead, with inflation data in JPN and euroe, U.S JOLTS tom, China Caixin data on Thursday and U.S NFP Friday (with the usual US debt ceiling drama and AI boom)
U.S debt ceiling doing what that 'China trade deal' was doing, ''buy the rumour and sell the fact' by the time they get there. -2- Republicans speak out against US debt-ceiling deal, in sign of rocky road ahead
Hot PCE Data on Friday : Core PCE inflation came in stronger than expected, rising 0.380% m-o-m in April (Consensus was at 0.3%), expectations for June hike all but baked, what next though is where the market 'diverge'
China turns down U.S. invitation for defense chiefs meeting. Pentagon proposed Lloyd Austin sit down with Li Shangfu, who is under sanction. A heat wave is sweeping across China, with #Guangzhou recording its highest temperature for May on Tuesday, hitting a record 38.5℃
Spanish prime minister calls for early general election
UK shop prices hit highest levels since BRC records began..some 18y ago
Twitter leaves EU’s voluntary pact against disinformation
After Turkey election win, what problems does Erdogan face next? Economic concerns and relations with the West lie at the top of Erdogan’s agenda after presidential run-off victory
Markets :
U.S PCE pushing rates higher, taking USD with is, risk still doing OK, mainly fulled by AI it is fair to say, though SPX popping its head above 4200 on 'favourable debt ceiling' outcome
USD stronger overall, higher yields etc
GOLD breaking through key support $1950
NVDA, NQ leading AI, SPX500 popping its head above 4200, Asia weak though
Extreme divergence in equity market internals over last week | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Extreme divergence in equity market internals over last week
Today, we note the extreme divergence in equity market themes over the last week that is a hidden development underneath the strong performance of the major US indices on Friday. We look at the moderate impact thus far of the debt ceiling agreement-in-principle reached at the weekend, discuss the strong earnings season and few interesting names set to report this week. Energy and the European natural gas market are in focus in commodities while we also try to gauge where we are in terms of timing an eventual recession with US yield-curve and consumer confidence survey indicators
Why have the Bank of England and the IMF been so wrong on the UK economy? (cityam.com) ...old style institutions that never adapted to the new world..
Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🇮🇹 #ITALY APRIL PRODUCER PRICES FALL 3.5% Y/Y (largest decline since Sep. 2020) - BBG *ITALY APRIL PRODUCER PRICES FALL 6.5% M/M https://t.co/xbl07MnELP" / Twitter ''Another piece of encouraging news from Spain suggesting core inflation dynamics have peaked''
This is from early march, but this conversation has come across our recent meetings with clients, thought it might be worth a read again
Lack of snow a little of an issue for many 'lower' resorts, cost of water cannons ? cost of energy ?..2nd and 3rd home tax may well eventually go higher, and finally CHF too strong got many in Europe and around the world
not neutral anymore..
great stuff, strewth
USDCNH - in perspective
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