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BUBA data / EZ, China : stronger PMI / ECB hawks out Munger / BoJ 9th March / 10y Bund 2.7%





  • Germany’s central bank will on Wednesday reveal how big a financial hole it faces from rising interest rates, which analysts warn will saddle it with mounting losses in the coming years and increase political scrutiny of its massive bond purchases

  • Charlie Munger's 15mins video below

  • Chipmakers receiving US federal funds barred from expanding in China for 10 years

  • Corporate Stock Buybacks help keep market afloat. Repurchases among S&P 500 companies are projected to top $1 trillion this year

  • US MNI Chicago PMI Feb: 43.6 (est 45.5; prev 44.3), Consumer Confidence 102.9, Exp. 108.5, Last 107.1 >>> both weaker (rates moves beginning to matter). Elsewhere, Oz Q4 GDP came in at +0.5% (exp +0.8%), while China Caixin Manuf were stronger at 51.6 (exp 49.2), NBS Manufacturing PMI 52.6 from 50.1 and vs f/c 50.5, highest since April 2012. Switzerland February manufacturing PMI 48.9 vs 49.3 prior, Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Feb: 50.7 (exp 49.0; prev 48.4), Italy higher too

  • "The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor," Buffett said in Berkshire Hathaway's 2022 shareholder letter

  • Tausende Übernachtungen: SAC-Hütten verbuchen Rekordjahr, record amount of folks went to stay in mountains 'huts' last year (one of the best things to do!)

  • FT - After losing £1.5bn, Ocado remains as committed as ever to losing money. Always burning since the world’s been turning >>> cheap funding, cheap energy, cheap labour, these kind of bizz model made sense back then, they don't anymore

  • ECB's Muller: Rate hikes are having an effect, but inflation is still too high -Expectations of rapid ECB rate cuts are wishful thinking

  • ECB's Nagel: ECB may need big rates hikes beyond March, Steeper QT from July

  • BOJ's Nakagawa: We're aiming for positive economic cycle accompanied by higher wages, Japan's biggest banks are raising pay for fresh graduates as competition and inflation heat up

 

Markets :
  • BUND 10y yields now nearer to 2.70%, after inflation data, 12years highs

  • USD firmer overall, but beware a change of tune from BoJ in coming 2months (next meeting 9-10th march)

  • 3months T-bills, starting 2022 they were yielding 4 bps, we are now near 5%, how long can the BoJ hold, is one of the biggest macro question from next few weeks..(months).

  • Eq in China rallied strongly on stronger macro data overnight, Copper up as well, SPX500 hanging in there 3960/90 support area, beware higher yields and new momentum in March

  • Stronger macro data is a positive development overall for folks (clearly), however, it is not for Fixed Income markets, selling off hard with ease on any signs of strong(er) macro data and/or inflation

 



All CB's suffering from the same fate, will not only be BUBA, but Bundesbank is in pole position with its EURO 1 trn bond portfolio >>> Germany’s central bank will on Wednesday reveal how big a financial hole it faces from rising interest rates, which analysts warn will saddle it with mounting losses in the coming years and increase political scrutiny of its massive bond purchases >>> the ECB and others continued to do a lot of QE when yields were negative 2y ago..this huge mistake is going to hurt various folks, as it will get very tricky on fiscal side of things for government spending..



Charlie Munger deploying BOMBS about CHINA, TAIWAN & BITCOIN! - YouTube 15 minutes that are well worth listening, Charlie didn't mince his words :-) , you may agree or disagree with his views, but there you go...he is true to his words





That's reality on the ground



the last bit is priceless and for real..






After losing £1.5bn, Ocado remains as committed as ever to losing money | Financial Times After losing £1.5bn, Ocado remains as committed as ever to losing money. Always burning since the world’s been turning >>> cheap funding, cheap energy, cheap labour, these kind of bizz model made sense back then, they don't anymore, with inflation/funding/rates higher for longer


Inflation, inflation, inflation, it hurts everywhere - changes abound required (changes are not a bad thing btw, we all hate them, but..changes can be positive)





Whaooo!


have a great day

team PVM


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