Global fund manager sentiment is the most upbeat since Jan. 2022: BofA survey. Investors were the most overweight stocks since before the Fed started to hike rates. Cash was cut to a 2-year low of 4.5% & investors are the most overweight bonds in 15 years, something to beware/keep in mind for early Jan, just in case Bonds start misbehaving again. Same survey shows FM are the most underweight commodities in over 6years
Fed talks : Raphael Bostic stressed patience before the Fed lowers rates, seeing inflation coming down “relatively slowly in the next six months.” Thomas Barkin signaled cuts are on the horizon if inflation keeps falling >>> the Fed pivot, asset markets rally, decline in VIX, IG spreads since March (60bps), 10y UST drop in yields to current levels and lower oil prices ($20 since Sep) will boost U.S GDP growth by 1.5% or so in H1 (perhaps why Fed will have to be careful..)
According to multiple U.S. Officials, Preparations are now underway for a Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen by the United States and others/Thread below
Japan govt to raise long-term rate estimate to 1.9% in next year's budget
Markets :
NYFANG is most overbought since June levels (overbought can stay overbought for longer than many thinks though, overbought does not mean down - just needs consolidating for few weeks, many other 'overbought signals out there though, RSI's 70+ act accordingly
Bund on 1 handle, 1,99%, massive move, when you consider it was on a 3 handle in early October !!, same for many other contracts, global deeflation is the word around at the moment, UK data was weaker than expected again too this morning
#IWM looks to be breaking up (chart)
#URA stocks taking a breather, correction glower, after huge move in 2023
Crude : grinding higher, U.S production on the increase again.. no need to replenish SPR this way... The U.S has added the equivalent of a new Venezuela in oil supply during Q4 2023, putting pressure on mid-east and other oil producers/Thread below
USDollar not exactly rallying, CHF strength still there, EURCHF doesn't seem to get away from those .94-.9500 handle, AUD looks to be slowly breaking up, CAD similarly
Markets & Mayhem on X: "The US added the equivalent of a new Venezuela in oil supply during Q4, with less rigs producing more oil as technological efficiency ramps up This supply growth has exceeded expectations and furled OPEC's attempt to put a floor under prices, at least for now https://t.co/jHcaE5Ijxa" / X (twitter.com)
OSINTdefender on X: "According to multiple U.S. Officials, Preparations are now underway for a Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen by the United States and other Countries involved with Operation Prosperity Guardian, with the Goal of the Operation being the Total… https://t.co/QimCsjPBIV" / X (twitter.com)
Thomas Jordan, the long-time Chairman of the National Bank, reportedly wanted to intervene much earlier at Credit Suisse, according to a media report. But his concerns were brushed aside
Russell on the cusp of breaking up
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