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Canada wild fires / RBA, BoC..no skipping? Fed July hike priced / Commods oversold / The Druck



  • U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday directed his administration to deploy “all available federal firefighting assets” that can quickly respond to the wildfires raging across Canada, Hundreds of wildfires burn in country, with 238 ‘out of control’ as of Tuesday afternoon, blanketing cities in smoke, what a terrible situation

  • Turkey’s Increasing Balance Sheet Risks. Turkey is heading for a classic currency crisis. All of its reserves and then some are borrowed, USDTRY is now 23+, down 25% YTD, market showing no confidence for Erdogan's ''policies''

  • Saudi Arabia’s takeover of the PGA tour is just one step of its sportswashing plan

  • UK to host first global summit on AI safety, Rishi Sunak announces

  • Druckenmiller : “I would actually argue since it’s taken so long and the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate… that it increases the probability of a hard landing.” - full article/interview below

  • With the recent leg up, 2s UST nearing 4.60% -- some 80 basis points above the low levels of March, April, and early May but short of the 5.07% that prevailed just before the banking tremors. This is ahead of -2- significant events next week: the May CPI inflation data and, of course, the FED policy meeting

  • Barnier, the man who negotiated the terms of Brexit from the EU side, saying here clearly that the UK can rejoin the EU anytime ''the door is always open''

 
Markets :
  • Crude, commods holding up/slightly firmer, reaction to China trying to kick start a few things locally (commods oversold - worth having a look again)

  • USD directionless, but much more down to what policies RoW are following, MXN vs TRY the biggest divergence and its reacting still

  • Bonds grinding lower, as RBA, BoC giving signs or hint perhaps other CB's will have to have another push higher over next few months (certainly no cuts!..), question the skipping ! Fed July hike almost fully priced in again..

  • Equity markets got a little nudge lower on BoC, a reminder to those calling for cuts...that rates will be most likely, high(er) for longer

  • The VIX ended the day at 13.94, its lowest close since February 2020 >>> that's when you should reduce risk and start to buy some hedges

 







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