China to use Shanghai exchange for yuan energy/oil payments deals with Gulf nations - Xi and Saudi ForeignMinister ''I don't see any contradiction in working with China & the U.S
Covid in China: China downplayed the risks of Covid again as it eases restrictions. Top medical adviser Zhong Nanshan said omicron's fatality rate is in line with the flu, about 0.1%
"Oil’s recent decline is due to paper markets selling into low liquidity air pockets rather than indication of a distressed physical market" - RBC... Goldman Sachs estimates that Chinese oil demand may rise by 1mbpd on reopening. All else equal, this may lead to price increases of around $15/bbl.
US lawmakers are laying the groundwork for a potential (potential?? oh come on pls) case of fraud against FTX Founder, Examines Cash Flows to Bahamas - Bloomberg
Belgian police arrested the vice-president of the European Parliament on suspicion of corruption in the interests of Qatar
BlackRock: "We don't think equities are fully priced for recession." "Corporate earnings expectations have yet to fully reflect even a modest recession. This keeps us tactically underweight developed market equities."
ECB will have reduced TLTRO by nearly 40%, and its balance sheet by about a tenth, and this before they even begin QT (Thread)
The USD liquidity picture is NOT as tight as forecasted by many.. The RRP, TGA and IOER-deficits COUNTER a lot of the intended QT effect.. (Thread)
US PPI: November PPI came in stronger than expected, increasing 0.3% m-o-m (Consensus 0.2%), 7.4& - few various bits lower but still
Markets :
OPEX expiry at end of the week - some $4trn of derivs expiring - to add some spice into the gamma stuff after FOMC
FED, BoE, ECB and even SNB pricing been cemented at 50bps for a while (SNB slightly less), it is ALL about the language
USD on weak side going into FOMC week, U.S CPI before meeting
Equity markets weakened on Friday into close on the slightly higher PPI, SPX500 3920 vs 4050 (so far...market 'failed' into the large resistance zone we talked about last 2weeks...OPEX related momentum/stops above ?)
Gold and XAG (in particular) rallied hard last 2weeks, the poor man's Gold, looks bullish while above $22.50 area on weekly/monthly basis
Crude on lows, watch out for China re-opening
The market consensus IS for a hawkish Powell, curve IS already very inverted
Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/4 China's huge shadow banking system is getting squeezed by the property crisis: "1,483 real estate-related trust products were sold in 2022 through the end of September, down 69.7% from 4,891 during the same period last year." https://t.co/o6oDbtAaWm" / Twitter China's huge shadow banking system is getting squeezed by the property crisis: "1,483 real estate-related trust products were sold in 2022 through the end of September, down 69.7% from 4,891 during the same period last year."
The number of flights for Beijing's Capital International Airport and Daxing International Airport roses by 63% on Sunday vs Saturday. CAAC flights at these two airports will reach 70% of the 2019 level in the near future
SPX500 - and the -4- trendlione tops, just about EVERYONE speaks about
Have a great start to the week
Team PVM
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