China 50y bonds / JPN 10y 1.39% / UKK-RU : frantic negotiations, EU summit in Paris / Gold : Fort Knox audit ?

Stéphan

4 days ago4 min read

It's President's day today, celebrating George's birthday on the 3rd Monday in Feb
UKR/RU : ongoing developments : Zelensky: "Neither I nor the Ukrainian people will accept any U.S.-Russia decisions if Ukraine is not involved." He insists that any talks must include four parties: Ukraine, the U.S., Europe, and Russia. UKR rejected Trump's deal on minerals. Emmanuel Macron has invited EU leaders for an emergency summit in Paris today. China courts frazzled Europe as Western alliance wavers, at Munich Security Conference, top Chinese envoy Wang Yi goes on charm offensive while US leaders berate Europe. JD Vance had the gloves off at the Munich conference.. >>> Bonds softly, vols on lows, Equity markets been on fire overall (#DAX and #HSI slowly overbought!), USD slightly softer again (2months lows) on weaker U.S retail sales on Friday, fascinating chatters on Gold, Fort Knox, revals etc
Singaporean Minister of Defense says America's image has shifted from that of a liberator to a great disruptor, and now to a landlord seeking rent
Rosenberg : One Russian newspaper today sums up how Moscow views the last few days: “Dumbfounded Europe, kneed by America just below the belt, is still struggling to get its breath back.” #ReadingRussia
Trump reported to be 'threatening to turn the Supreme Court's biggest fear into reality', Trump on the EU possibly banning food imports from the US: "I don't mind. Let them do it. Let them do it.". He promises to treat VAT systems like Europe's like tariffs
China tightens control over Technology, Minerals, and engineers amid escalating Trade War, China sells 50-Year debt at sub-2% yield amid deflation fears ($2.8bn). Goldman raises MSCI #China target as DeepSeek improves outlook (it was a game change!..)
US job construction openings are falling as if there is a 'recession' : Construction job openings have declined by over 250K in 12 mos to just 165,000, the lowest in 8 years
COMEX Flows: Is the Gold Case Almost Too Obvious? ...'''Suddenly, everyone is demanding an audit of Fort Knox'''....and now Trump/Musk demanding the audit, could be rather interesting or fun depending on who you ask, fascinating even
We have two competitive but highly disruptive shocks underway/Thread
Japan's economy expands annualised 2.8% in Oct-Dec >>> 10y yields 1.39%
UK's Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has set up her own DOGE unit in the Home Office to find and freeze wasteful spending
Germany has huge challenges ahead : 1) a growth model broken, 2) AfD and 3) it HAS to release the debt brakes... only solution : tough decisions ahead
#META is the most extended above its upper Bollinger Band in history/weekly chart
Canadian MP Charlie Angus: “We will never, ever, ever, kiss the ring of that gangster from Mar-A-Lago."
Jeffries: "They have no interest in improving the quality of life of hard-working American taxpayers. Instead, what they're trying to do, while they distract people, is to jam the GOP tax scam down the throats of people ... it's a toxic bait and switch."
The MAGA trade morphed into the MEGA and nowhere better has that been manifested than in the DAX, though now weekly RSI is above 80. That is rare!
RBA likely to deliver 25bps tomorrow, narrative whether they have confidence inflation continues softer very important for #AUDUSD and bills
According to Al-Hal, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said that all contracts with Russia will not be renewed, and Syria will not be subordinated to any regional axis.