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Writer's pictureStéphan

China CPI -0.2% / BoJ talk talk / NQ follows UST curve, MSFT ATH's / Powell : be flexible



  • On this day in 1989, the Berlin wall came down

  • Over the last 120yrs 98% of all countries where sovereign debt/GDP hit 130% ended up defaulting. (GS)

  • Jerome Powell Urges For A More Flexible Approach To Economic Forecasting: 'The Economy Frequently Surprises Us'

  • BMO: The drop in oil prices is “likely to see next week’s CPI report .. dip back into the low 3’s. .. the Fed couldn’t have asked for much more to help it achieve a soft landing.”

  • China is back in deflation, a sign that demand is not picking up despite numerous stimulus in recent months, China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2 per cent from a year earlier in October, while the producer price index (PPI) fell for the 13th month in a row

  • Chinese health care stocks are back in vogue after a $142 billion wipeout, as signs grow that the worst of a government crackdown is over.

  • US carries out new strikes against facility used by Iran in Syria

  • More Americans are yanking money from their 401(k) plans to pay the bills

  • Short interest in the ~Magnificent Seven~ is at an all time low --BofA

  • Bank of Japan governor warns unwinding ultra-loose policy is ‘serious challenge

  • BoE's Pill: UK monetary policy must stay tight to lower inflation

 

Markets :

  • Chinese deflation, copper prices slightly softer, crude OIL on lows, German data weak, plenty of signs of weakness on the macro picture, tricky and volatile path, market sentiment and views swing around pretty quickly

  • JPY weaker, BoJ keeps on talking, market doesn't care about words, CROSSJPY's higher mainly in FX this week, and some of them looking like breaking up and heading back towards higher levels not seen since 2008 (EURJPY stopped just short of 170..)! back then though it was with EURUSD at 1.6000 ! and USDJPY 120

  • Equity markets enjoying the idea of softer yields and light talks of light recession, lower Chinese inflation, crude on lows (U.S. CPI next week should be softer!)..Big Techs on highs, MSFT hit a new high this week, familiar looking trend, where NQ follows the UST curve!

  • EUstoxx50 - looks like it wants to break up too - chart

 

Steen's Big picture macro - well worth 11mins of your time



One usually says this when one's got it wrong, or indeed things swing around pretty quickly, perhaps signs of loosing bond market 'control', US debt to GDP levels too high etc






The number of 401(k) plan participants taking hardship distributions increased by 13% between the second and third quarters/BoA







Why did Microsoft's stock reach an all-time high on Nov. 7? (qz.com) Microsoft's record high stock price was about more than OpenAI ..The software giant's stock rose for eight days straight to reach an all-time high of $360 on Nov. 7


EU50 - looks like it wants to break up too





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