-BUND spiked higher yesterday (and everything else follows).. market chatter EZ CPI will be softer, and helped lift DAX and other European markets - EZ CPI and other key macro data coming up this week, with NFP on Friday too
-Mild weather is crushing energy demand, sending European gas and power prices sharply lower
-China re-opening story is/will be huge - either way for markets, with obvious candidates, like ChinaA50, HSI, commodities, metals, shipping and so on the likely big beneficiaries, still.. (major Eq exchanges charts below)
- #Longduration US techs (as warned many times las year, ARKK etc etc) “was” the equity trade of the last decade, that trade is over. Investors got to look forward to the next 3-5-10years, not need to look in the rear-view mirror..
-Croatia just became the Euro's newest member
-Musk became the first ever man to lose $200bn (and in just over 1 year..)
-The super-rich ‘preppers’ planning to save themselves from the apocalypse
-Gold buyers binge on biggest volumes for 55 years. China and Russia have been large accumulators of the precious metal in 2022, analysts say
-How private markets became an escape from reality. There will be nowhere to hide in the tight money era-FT
-Most market participants expects equity and bonds down in 2023, due to ongoing tight(er) monetary policies and now recession fears, weaker global economic activities, the contrarian will say 'so it will rally''....the real question is what is priced and where, and most importantly whether FED actually cuts by end of 2023/24 as Mr Markets wants and has priced in
-BOJ may raise its inflation forecast for FY2023 and 2024 to close to 2%, again, some sort of Japanese 'taper' in 2023 would be a huge surprise for markets, and woul have huge implications too, that all said, USDJPY already down from 150 to 130JPY area >>> remember ? never ever underestimate BoJ over time, back then too many chose to ignore their $75bn UST sales...
Markets :
- Early kick-off in markets usually pretty wild, as liquidities come at a premium, quite often 'owned' positions challenged, as seen this early morning, 'short usdollar' position challenged (although more of a still CROSSJPY selling price action overall - BoJ inflation expectations..), as well as short equities etc
-Technical recap from Saxo below, always worth having a look at them in the new year!
- GOLD : A record 399 tons of gold purchases by central banks took place in the third quarter >>> have you got any #XAUUSD exposure ? physical, miners, etc etc and don't forget #XPT either
- FWIW ....My new year resolutions are : ..much of the same, be kind to others, never underestimate what markets can do, share the love, avoid greed, focus on real economy, and wish all low paid workers a big pay rise (sorry Central bankers..), keep doing what works, trust your own work #PVMinvestment matrix was slightly up last year in the #longonly category of the investment world
2022 :
DJIA -8.8%
S&P 500 -19.4%
Nasdaq -33.1%
Bitcoin -64.2%
TSLA -65.0%
ARKK -67.0%
PVM +1%
most likely a big NO - but of course it depends who you asking
Only if you want to be pretty bearish US markets: Systemic Calamity | Felix Zulauf - YouTube
and do not really listen if you don't want to listen to end of the world stuff
Hope this daily helps you navigate markets ! it should - never hesitate to ask questions about it, about the comments, the charts etc
Have a great start to 2023
All best Team PVM
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