Softer crude prices again, YTD lows, and with global inventories at their lowest levels, demand must be weak! global growth concerns on the increase, weaker ISM
Lack of market concern for geopolitics is astounding, Lybia, Russia-UKR, China-Taiwan, Israel, Turkey BRUICS, Iran attacks, red sea chaos etc
VIX swings and NVDA leading overall markets 'sentiment-momentum', still/again chart here : United States Stock Market Index (USVIX) - Index Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart (tradingeconomics.com)
"More of our customers are resorting to credit cards for basic household needs and approximately 30% have at least one credit card that has reached its limit. See our latest survey, 25% of our customers surveyed noted they anticipated missing a bill payment in the next six months." -Dollar General, CEO August 29, 2024
China’s industrial strategy on ‘collision course’ with top German export industries >>> worrying, china overcapacity stats are huge, even anti dumping measures may not be enough!, more EU tariffs likely coming in October >> See G Magnus below
Ueda reiterates that BOJ will lift rates if outlook realised >>> looks like top in USDJPY is nearer to 147-149JPY now then >>> The BOJ will face a new wave of inflationary pressures, Tankan survey showing inflation rate in Japan could rise to near 4% over the next 12mos
Swiss inflation undershot expectations again, down to 1.1% in Aug. The SNB cut in Sep is baked in, question is do they do more than expected
#DAX Germany's Stock Market hit record high despite the economy shrinking during the last quarter, peaked again at the end of August
The latest data from the Treasury shows that the US government now pays out on average $3 billion in interest expenses per day, including weekends
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. The S&P 500 appears to be trading out of sync with other markets; the next labor report may determine which is right ..”
Nomura says Trump, if elected, would restart inflation and damage the economy: "We would expect inflation in 2025 to be notably higher by 0.75pp, a larger fiscal deficit, fewer fed rate cuts and slightly weaker growth."
Goldman Sachs expects central banks will keep fleeing towards gold due to ‘fear for financial sanctions and US sovereign debt’ #XAUUSD
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 (in contraction) for 21 out of the last 22 months. With data going back to 1948, that's only happened one other time: 1989-91 (Recession in 1990-91)
This is the set-up as we start September, 2months to go to the U.S election, no need to add to risk here, stay cool, wait for better levels to re-enter, sell rallies.
- Crude is on YTD lows, when everyone has been bullish, feels like recession and/or Trump win (lot more supply coming) but IMHO, key is global growth concerns — particularly following this week’s Chinese and US manufacturing data, NatGas falling as if no-one needs it, Copper prices trade 'recession' like
- Bond prices falling a little as if inflation will come back
- Gold is off its highs, Silver a little more, as if all these rate cuts been cancelled
- Stocks topped out again, NVDA - feels a little a pretty wonky set-up ('''descelarating rate of earnigns grwoth'' last week's earnings, eventually got noticed
- BTC struggling too, risk appetite seems to have gone >>> BTC just another
liquidity driven risk on play
- EV priced ''plunging''- China 'oversupply war' with EU and U.S..Chinese markets breaking down through worrying levels
- Credit card defaults from small lenders hit RECORD highs. Comments from Dollar General CEO say it all - consumers tapped out (2speed economy in mind..)
- Plenty of geopolitics across world, and French, German politics getting very
complicated
- 2weeks away from first FED cut - 200bps priced in and possibly a BoJ hiking in Dec
- Carry trade will be challenged again
Nvidia Stocks Loses $280 Billion In MCap: Why the Chipmaker Saw its Worst Single Day Fall (outlookbusiness.com)
Nvidia is flashing a sell signal and its huge rally marks the peak of a 40-year market cycle, veteran strategist says (aol.com)
George Magnus on X: "This is 1 scary chart if you're a Chinese economic policy maker (ie, Xi). You/he should be having a panic attack. Does he/do they care? Weakest broad monetary growth and collapsing M1 are pointing to slumping money GDP growth, and persistent deflationary pressures. 1/3 https://t.co/dlbXS68t5A" / X
Ole S Hansen on X: "The fact that #crudeoil trades lower despite a sizeable Libyan supply disruption highlights a very weak market sentiment that increasingly carries the risk of Brent tumbling through key support in the USD 75 area https://t.co/KH3mVGkrHl" / X
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