-UKR/RU one year on
BoJ's Ueda : details of interview below, they won't rush into anything before their financial year-end at end of March. NO sense of a rush (JPY can weaken in short-term) But he added: "If the outlook for underlying prices continues to improve, I believe that we will have no choice but to review the yield curve control, or at least to review it in the direction of normalization."...so eventually.. in April/Mai policy may well change
Energy : You see this across the piece with new technology these days. You can’t make batteries, solar panels or for that matter wind turbines without a lot of energy, article below from Ed Conway - well worth a read !
EZ inflation for Jan topped earlier estimate. CPI rose 8.6% in Jan. Core CPI, which strips out volatile categories, was 5.3%, up from preliminary estimate of 5.2% and fresh ATH >>> Core gives ECB hawks more ammunition to stay the course and hike more
ECB scraps dividend after rising interest rates wipe out profits. Eurozone central bank risks losses in the coming years as it unwinds quantitative easing policies
Netflix cuts prices for subscribers in more than 30 countries
Chinese drone manufacturer Xi'an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology has agreed to manufacture and test 100 kamikaze drones, before delivering them to the Russian military, der Speigel reports >>> China has called for a cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia, according to a proposal released by its foreign ministry Thursday evening
Blinken says India, South Africa are on slow trajectory away from alignment with Russia
Markets :
MOVE index (bon vol very important in the current macro world), VIX >> we talked about it 1week ago or so, ''it's when it's quiet that you wan to put a few hedges on..''... they both moved up a little and it's NO surprise equity markets are struggling a little bit, key support, moving averages just below and well documented
JPY, no hurry from Ueda, market may well test topside USDJPY again
SPX500 all about moving averages 3960/3990 area, HSTECH struggling again, DAX near top after huge rally since October, worth considering taking some profit up here (valuations..), lets see what PCT says this afternoon. Overall, valuations are too high, but plenty of interesting single names, stock picking is what it's all about
USD stays firm(er) overall, Ueda is no hurry either. EURUSD slowly sinking (German Q4 GDP revised lower to -0.4% - BIG drop in domestic demand - chart below), AUDUSD breaking down technically too. USDCNH 6.95 again (highest since Dec - risk of sanctions?).., USDCHF, as discussed last week, decent break, stays bullish while above 0.9250/75 area
You see this across the piece with new technology these days. You can’t make batteries, solar panels or for that matter wind turbines without a lot of energy. Same thing, by the way, for fertilisers. These days not only is Europe importing more tomatoes, it’s shut down most of its fertiliser plants and is importing most of its ammonia from overseas. Some of this comes from the US, where it’s made with fracked shale gas. Some comes from China, where it’s made in part from coal(!) When we finally get around to making green fertiliser we’ll need even more energy. Crazy amounts of energy!
We have spent much of the past 50 years focused on trying to reduce our energy consumption - for good reasons. We realised that it was damaging the environment. But if we ever finally crack clean, affordable energy production the world will become a far healthier, more productive place
The War in Ukraine: China Is Reportedly Negotiating with Russia To Supply Kamikaze Drones - DER SPIEGEL >>>> let's hope this is 'wrong', if it isn't, the BIG risk is that the US and Europe will respond very harshly with trade sanctions
And Just right now mid morning, response already in : EC Pres. von der Leyen: -Sanctions are sharply eroding Russia's economic base -China shared principles, not a peace plan for Ukraine -China has already taken side for Russia, we have to view their principles in that light
BASF to cut 2,600 jobs as firm adjusts to future without cheap Russian gas | Business Standard News (business-standard.com) >>> Germany’s economy shrank more than expected at the end of 2022, falling 0.4%
The world's largest retailer posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings on Feb.21, but issued a muted full-year profit forecast as it cautioned that consumers will continue to spend conservatively in a slowing economy.
EURUSD - we mentioned after Feb NFP that 1.0750 break would change trend, since then German data weaker, risk of sanctions, and Fed Dec 2023 repriced by 80bps. plenty of room to head south
Comments