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China trade / USDTRY 23 / Russell catching up / UBS & GS US recession prob / VIX on early 2020 lows





  • Ukraine dam: Thousands flee floods after dam collapse near Nova Kakhovka

  • Goldman Sachs: "We have cut our judgmental probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months back to 25%, undoing our upward revision to 35% shortly after the SVB failure." + China having a go at property markets (cutting lending rates)

  • UBS revises its Fed call: One more hike, in July, Now sees first cut (only) in December; was previously forecasting a cut in September "We continue to expect a recession in the US beginning later this year, despite the seemingly teflon nonfarm payroll employment gains."

  • The market cap for the “S&P7” equals the Fed balance sheet

  • China set to account for less than half of US’s low-cost imports from Asia. Reshoring index shows inbound Chinese goods fell to lowest level in 10 years amid geopolitical tensions

  • Salesforce wants employees back in the office so badly that it's donating $10 to local charities for every day an employee comes into work

  • The Securities and Exchange Commission is suing Binance with a series of charges, as the crypto giant continues to face growing regulatory pressures in the US

  • The Swedish population is becoming less hostile to the idea of adopting the euro as the krona trades near its weakest levels ever

  • UK house prices book first annual contraction in a decade. Property prices down 1% last month compared with May 2022, the first annual fall since December 2012 >> positive!

  • -US Secretary of State Blinken Set to Travel to Beijing for Talks in Coming Weeks

  • -"The governor of the Saudi wealth fund Yasir Al Rumayyan, himself a keen golfer, will be chairman of the new entity, which also includes the European golf tournament." >>> money doesn't talk, it screams!

 
Markets :
  • VIX below 15

  • SPX500 liking life above 4200, Russell catching up/breaking through 1825 area. The S&P 500 has clawed back months of losses --closing at 2023 high and highest level since last August

  • UST 2y 4.50% still, the TGA should slowly start to rebuild cash (sell few UST's-over time), nothing new but this will be a drain over time (as opposed to H1 2023)

  • USD stays firm near recent highs, as yields picked last few weeks, up so did the USD, the surprise for many is how well equity markets are doing overall >>> IMHO vols so low systematic fund keep on buying for now (and we broke 4150-4200 top end of the prev range), Call volume in $SPX continues to surge to new all-time highs Recently rising to $700B in a single day of notional value exchanged on the call side

 

this is so bagshittcrazy


"We have already witnessed a sharp slide in dollar reserves, which fell from 55 percent in 2021 to 47 percent in 2022, which is an unprecedented 8-percentage-point drop in a single year."



consequences of for ever borrowing with a huge current account deficit..currency breaks, big risk of going really wrong.. (venezuela, Argentina and so on)



Today - 02/06/2023 - BBC Sounds early FB investor talks about AI, 22.5 minutes into it

well worth a listen





once folks get used to a style of work/living...


Almost back to normal in London!



Nuts !


Everybody moans prices are too high, so it's a good thing !!!




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