Ukraine dam: Thousands flee floods after dam collapse near Nova Kakhovka
Goldman Sachs: "We have cut our judgmental probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months back to 25%, undoing our upward revision to 35% shortly after the SVB failure." + China having a go at property markets (cutting lending rates)
UBS revises its Fed call: One more hike, in July, Now sees first cut (only) in December; was previously forecasting a cut in September "We continue to expect a recession in the US beginning later this year, despite the seemingly teflon nonfarm payroll employment gains."
The market cap for the “S&P7” equals the Fed balance sheet
China set to account for less than half of US’s low-cost imports from Asia. Reshoring index shows inbound Chinese goods fell to lowest level in 10 years amid geopolitical tensions
Salesforce wants employees back in the office so badly that it's donating $10 to local charities for every day an employee comes into work
The Securities and Exchange Commission is suing Binance with a series of charges, as the crypto giant continues to face growing regulatory pressures in the US
The Swedish population is becoming less hostile to the idea of adopting the euro as the krona trades near its weakest levels ever
UK house prices book first annual contraction in a decade. Property prices down 1% last month compared with May 2022, the first annual fall since December 2012 >> positive!
-US Secretary of State Blinken Set to Travel to Beijing for Talks in Coming Weeks
-"The governor of the Saudi wealth fund Yasir Al Rumayyan, himself a keen golfer, will be chairman of the new entity, which also includes the European golf tournament." >>> money doesn't talk, it screams!
Markets :
VIX below 15
SPX500 liking life above 4200, Russell catching up/breaking through 1825 area. The S&P 500 has clawed back months of losses --closing at 2023 high and highest level since last August
UST 2y 4.50% still, the TGA should slowly start to rebuild cash (sell few UST's-over time), nothing new but this will be a drain over time (as opposed to H1 2023)
USD stays firm near recent highs, as yields picked last few weeks, up so did the USD, the surprise for many is how well equity markets are doing overall >>> IMHO vols so low systematic fund keep on buying for now (and we broke 4150-4200 top end of the prev range), Call volume in $SPX continues to surge to new all-time highs Recently rising to $700B in a single day of notional value exchanged on the call side
this is so bagshittcrazy
"We have already witnessed a sharp slide in dollar reserves, which fell from 55 percent in 2021 to 47 percent in 2022, which is an unprecedented 8-percentage-point drop in a single year."
consequences of for ever borrowing with a huge current account deficit..currency breaks, big risk of going really wrong.. (venezuela, Argentina and so on)
Today - 02/06/2023 - BBC Sounds early FB investor talks about AI, 22.5 minutes into it
well worth a listen
once folks get used to a style of work/living...
Almost back to normal in London!
Nuts !
Everybody moans prices are too high, so it's a good thing !!!
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