FED chair Jerome Powell will be speaking this week on Wednesday starting at 1:30PM ET, and Central Bankers taking today : ECB Knot, De Cos, McCaul, Lagarde and Nagel, then Fed Williams & Bullard later on in our day
ECB : all eyes on the Nov flash HICP data on Wed, exp. unch core inflation at 5%, risks bit more balanced, unless lower 75bps in Dec still very likely
CHINA riots, protest, clashes in Shanghai, anti Xi calls, it's not quietening down. Multiple cities, different reasons for protests, economy in a slump, global demand down, pretty tough set of things to control... >>>> going to be an 'interesting' few days-weeks in China, eventually can work both ways.. all gets worse or someone loses faith, buys few billions doses of foreing vaccines and move on..
Late-cycle economies of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden - the #CANNS - that are seeing their housing markets suffer most - with the ASR CANNS House Price Index falling at an annualised rate of -14.9% over the 3mos months to October/thread
On Friday, PBOC cut RRR by 25bps, woved to step up implementation of prudent monetary policy ''we will not resort to flood-like stimulus'' >>>> more debt, lower rates in a broken market will most likely not help much, the whole investment model in question (broken), but they know nothing else, which probably means they will stick to the same as they cannot back down..
JAPAN inflation higher last Friday, JPN likely to continue to sell Treasuries, which is widening rates differential, won't help but they will most likely continue too >>> massive amount of debt across the world fuelled massive investment bubbles last many years
Hedge fund Rokos warns that sterling is ‘vulnerable’ to further fall, Brexit, deglobalisation and pandemic deal bigger shock to terms of trade, investors told >>>> that's the other big Brexit financed by massive debt increase, the bill has turned up too, they always do in the end, ridiculous populist ideas leading to poorer folks to pay the bills - ZERO accountability with politicians or central bankers, why?..
When prices surge, people can afford less, businesses struggle to control costs and, in extreme cases, political revolutions are born
ESG fab (for investor...funds did well though...) - Elephants in the sustainable funds room -- why green funds fail
There are millions of orphaned gas and oil wells leaking methane in the U.S. — and plugging them will cost billions. Watch the full video..
China is spending as much if not more on PCR testing as in education, totally crazy what the CCP is imposing on its people, no wonder they are becoming a lot more vocal !!
Norway Became an EV Paradise, Now It's Imposing a Weight Tax and Bringing Back the VAT
Markets :
Crude erases 2022 gains on recessions talsk, economic slowdown accentuated by China unrests again
The huge U.S equity net short is GONE, but market is far from long, skew suggesting funds are switching into hedgingdownside via puts again
USDJPY possibly breaking down/CROSSJPY's rallies sold into on possible risk aversion after this big short-covering rally in Equity markets last few weeks, USDCNH higher on specific local worries
10y UST yields 3.63% - that's a pretty decent move last few weeks!, which helped Eq clearly, the thing that could worry markets again is the Fed pivot, isn't a pivot but a pause.. which seems the most likely scenario for now (unless inflation goes down properly and/or unemployment goes decently higher, the FED won't blink, and some 150bps of cuts priced in already for 2023-24
About a year ago every bank was euphoric about 2023, consensus S&P forecast was above 5,100. Now :..... every bank is gloomy and downbeat, with the most optimistic predicting a flat S&P at best, some see S&P dropping to 3000 >>>> all you need is a good valuation model and manager!
Pure (almost)marketing scams, as often discussed before, as usual investors are fooled
'''I have always been amazed by how many funds groups seem to be led by theri marketing departments rather than their investment departments''
China’s steampunk covid response | The Economist China’s steampunk covid response - How to read the country’s confusing pandemic-policy changes
1 - Long 30-year Treasuries 2 - Yield curve steepening 3 - Short US dollar, long emerging markets assets, long EM distressed bonds, long Korean won, long Mexican peso 4 - Long China stocks 5 - Long gold, long copper 6 - Barbell long IG tech bonds with distressed HY debt in Asia 7 - Long global industrials and small caps 8 - Short US tech 9 - Short private equity 10 - Long EU banks, short Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and Swedish banks
Norway Became an EV Paradise, Now It's Imposing a Weight Tax and Bringing Back the VAT - autoevolution .... 10-15years ago...weren't electric cars meant to be the little 2-seater we were all going to use in town to do our shopping and/or small distances? ...yups, not an SUV and/or 6seater limousine weighing 2.5tons or more...
USDJPY broke down, corrected back to trend line last week and here we are lower again
Have a great start to the week
Team PVM
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