FED week! (in Chicago here), finally after 1y of speculation we will get the first 25bps cut of this cycle (possibly 50bps if you listen to Ip and Timiraos-WSJ late last week), but super core is still 4.2% !.. we have about 36bps priced in for this meeting, total 110+ for 2024, we also have Brazil, SA and Japan this week, BoE meets Thursday, nothing expected/priced this time round, but much better probability they do something than not (growth softer, services inflation still too high, UK CPI Wed may influence) >>> MOST things trading off U.S rates right now, lower yields globally (bull steepner), USD, GOLD and risk overall holding up very well, it could be argued that 50bps cut by FED could question the why now, what do they know, low growth scenario, which makes the employment data most important still going forward
USD stays soft big picture, but big supports around 1.1225 EURO, 1.3250 CABLE, 0.8400 CHF, 140JPY, 7.08 CNH >>> must treat with care this week
Equity markets 'nearly priced to perfection', 50bps might actually worry the markets, what does FED know we don't type scenario (growth scare etc)
Trump second assassination attempt, or an apparent attempt (FBI)
Supercore inflation rose by 4.2% year-over-year in August and is now double the levels seen before 2020. Premature rate cuts may trigger a resurgence of inflation and worsen affordability/Thread, the dilemna!
China has bought about a 3rd of the global gold market in 2024/Thread, very poor set of economic data in China again >>> a lot of action finally in miners, junior miners #GDX #GDXJ #SILJ etc
Yen hits strongest level this year on speculation of big Fed rate cut - Nikkei Asia as much as we remain big USDJPY 'bears' for eventually 120-125JPY, be slightly careful this week
Jim Bianco on X: "From the Fed's perspective, Friday's fed fund futures close was about the worst possible: 49% probability of a 50 bps cut/51% probability of a 25 bps cut (chart). This is literally one tick from maximum uncertainty (50/50). About half of Wall Street will be https://t.co/9SSRDRfVK6" / X markets been gunning for any signs of a 50bps cut
Ukraine-Russia war live: Dozens injured in Kharkiv apartment strike as Lammy vows not to be ‘bullied by Putin’ (msn.com)
Make Gold Great Again on X: "China has drained 29% of the global #gold market in 2024... so far! Or said differently: You have some gold, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? Watch it. Now, my straw reaches acroooooooss the room and drinks your gold. I... drink... your... GOLD! #GOLD https://t.co/EnnUH96Oaa" / X
Ole S Hansen on X: "Speculators in metals made only a few changes in the week to 10 September, ahead of #gold's break to a fresh record, which supported 10% weekly gains in #silver and #platinum, the latter driven by demand from wrong-footed short sellers. Before the surge, the platinum short had https://t.co/r2VuKDiMPL" / X
#GBP Rachel Reeves warned that cutting investment would damage ‘foundations of UK economy’ – business live (msn.com) BoE most likely to wait for Budget in Oct, and possibly act at the Nov meeting
The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Something does not add up here: Supercore inflation rose by 4.5% year-over-year in August and is now double the levels seen before 2020. Supercore inflation is a key metric followed by the Fed which is calculated as core services less housing inflation. Supercore inflation has https://t.co/iRpLXVzZ06" / X
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