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Writer's pictureStéphan

Commods, previous metals, gold, silver keep on trucking / USDJPY teasing BoJ / FED Funds down to -2- cuts pricing in '24 ahead of U.S CPI and FOMC minutes tom



  • Commodities, copper, crude, gold, platinum etc firmer still

  • Fed Funds futures now pointing to just -2- cuts in 2024, with chance of a July cut fading, a strong CPI will push rate cut expectations to Sep immediately tomorrow >> the argument for cuts is dissipating - no landing looking at NFP's ! au contraire, we continue to look for a #highforlonger scenario, markets will test BoJ with USDJPY 152+

  • Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trading company, has made more money in the last 3 years than during the past 30 years combined ($13bn revenues in 2023 alone..)

  • The S&P 500 hasn't had a -2% day since February 21, 2023. "This is the 12th longest such streak since 1928:" Citi's Stuart Kaiser

  • DB: "How can credit sell-off in a world where growth is strong & the Fed is dovish? The largest risk is the market doubting the Fed's ability to cut in 2025 & 2026....Even after last Friday's jobs report, we are still pricing more 2025 & 2026 cuts than at the start of this year"

  • US will not accept Chinese imports decimating new industries, Yellen says (EV..)

  • The US Federal debt is set to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025. Currently, US Federal debt is rising by a whopping $1 trillion every 100 days

  • Jamie Dimon warns inflation, interest rates may remain elevated, 'soft landing odds are 'lower' than markets believe'...indeed last NFP another +"300K...last 3 NFP were much higher in fact

  • GOLDMAN: ".. Investors are concerned that recent management commentary from consumer facing companies suggests some signs of weakness. $COST missed consensus US sales estimates for the month of February. $LULU, $NKE, and $ULTA all recently issued disappointing forward guidance. Last month, $MCD CFO called out a 'challenging consumer environment' while this week $DRI missed on revs." [Kostin]

  • Insider selling in the first quarter reached its highest level in over 3 years, with total insider sales nearing $25 billion, according to Smart Insider.

  • India just reported record monthly imports of #silver

 


A lot going in the world of #Gold #Gold miners and in Silver, just the beginning of higher vol in weeks and months to come China Gold-Buying Frenzy Sparks Chaos In ETFs | ZeroHedge




Let's hope he is wrong, this would be some kind of Armageddon for many many buisinesses








Inflation..., pushing folks to turn to stealing Cargo theft up 57% in 2023 vs. 2022, new CargoNet data shows (cnbc.com)



#XAGUSD could go a long way


BRENT - looks like we are heading for 100bucks


NASDAQ - all about US CPI and rates expectations for 2024 - down to 2now, do we go down to 1 cut ?


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