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Writer's pictureStéphan

Container rates $10K / U.S core PCE 2% / China new gaming regs / Very Merry Happy Xmas to you all



  • Happy Holidays, Frohe Weihnachten, Joyeux Noel, Buon Natale, Feliz Navidad! "May the warmth of the holiday season bring joy to you and your loved ones. Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a wonderful New Year filled with happiness and prosperity!"

  • U.S core PCE QoQ 2.0% (est 2.3%, previous 3.7%...), when you add deflation signals in China and Europe...the rate cuts expectations look justified (after hikes got overdone topside initially by CB's that had been so late at actually start to hike 2years ago....) >>> we are now tipped a bit over 50% odds that by this time next year, the Fed will have cut 175bps

  • China unveiled a raft of new measures to rein in spending and content in online games, signaling the start of another industry crackdown that wiped out roughly $54 billion of Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s value-BBG, China 30y yields hit lowest yields sinc2 2005 !

  • Angola leaves OPEC in blow to oil producer group

  • German far-right party makes electoral breakthrough. Alternative for Germany secures first town mayoralty amid federal government’s rising unpopularity

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin met in Beijing, signaling a stronger alliance between the two countries

  • Container rates hit $10,000 as ocean freight inflation soars in Red Sea crisis

  • Switzerland’s financial regulator is investigating Julius Bär Group over inadequate risk-control structures that contributed to the bank’s exposure to bankrupt property mogul Rene Benko

  • Giuliani files for bankruptcy

  • Banks are pocketing real money by borrowing money from the Fed's newest backstop facility, which charges a lower rate, and then parking it at another unit of the Fed, which pays higher interest. Banks are borrowing record amounts from this new facility, why not do it if you could!

 

Markets :

  • All relatively quiet, but Wednesday's 1.5% sell-off, is not worrying given the extent of it in pct terms, but shows how suddenly things can change

  • USD remains soft(er) going into year-end, as bonds firm up/yields soften again pore PCE

  • Equity markets holding up pretty well by the looks, low yields and vols all contributing to help sentiment going into 2024

  • Gold, Silver, XPT all at very interesting tech levels - a lot of research talking 'on the cusp of breaking'


 


liquidity!








Softer crude, rates, inflation would tend to suggest higher GDP ahead, unless debt really hits home (and spending) in 2024..









You bet..!



Used to really dislike this system..you?




XAGUSD - break up ? decision time - Q1 2024


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