Happy Holidays, Frohe Weihnachten, Joyeux Noel, Buon Natale, Feliz Navidad! "May the warmth of the holiday season bring joy to you and your loved ones. Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a wonderful New Year filled with happiness and prosperity!"
U.S core PCE QoQ 2.0% (est 2.3%, previous 3.7%...), when you add deflation signals in China and Europe...the rate cuts expectations look justified (after hikes got overdone topside initially by CB's that had been so late at actually start to hike 2years ago....) >>> we are now tipped a bit over 50% odds that by this time next year, the Fed will have cut 175bps
China unveiled a raft of new measures to rein in spending and content in online games, signaling the start of another industry crackdown that wiped out roughly $54 billion of Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s value-BBG, China 30y yields hit lowest yields sinc2 2005 !
Angola leaves OPEC in blow to oil producer group
German far-right party makes electoral breakthrough. Alternative for Germany secures first town mayoralty amid federal government’s rising unpopularity
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin met in Beijing, signaling a stronger alliance between the two countries
Container rates hit $10,000 as ocean freight inflation soars in Red Sea crisis
Switzerland’s financial regulator is investigating Julius Bär Group over inadequate risk-control structures that contributed to the bank’s exposure to bankrupt property mogul Rene Benko
Giuliani files for bankruptcy
Banks are pocketing real money by borrowing money from the Fed's newest backstop facility, which charges a lower rate, and then parking it at another unit of the Fed, which pays higher interest. Banks are borrowing record amounts from this new facility, why not do it if you could!
Markets :
All relatively quiet, but Wednesday's 1.5% sell-off, is not worrying given the extent of it in pct terms, but shows how suddenly things can change
USD remains soft(er) going into year-end, as bonds firm up/yields soften again pore PCE
Equity markets holding up pretty well by the looks, low yields and vols all contributing to help sentiment going into 2024
Gold, Silver, XPT all at very interesting tech levels - a lot of research talking 'on the cusp of breaking'
liquidity!
They were ignored for 10 years – now the Houthis are threatening to throw global trade into chaos (msn.com)
Softer crude, rates, inflation would tend to suggest higher GDP ahead, unless debt really hits home (and spending) in 2024..
Angola leaves OPEC in blow to oil producer group (gulfbusiness.com) most of its Oil goes to China
You bet..!
Rudy Giuliani declares bankruptcy after being ordered to pay $150 million in defamation lawsuit (msn.com)
Used to really dislike this system..you?
XAGUSD - break up ? decision time - Q1 2024
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