China, solid numbers, after being outpaced by IP during the first two months of 2023 (2.4% versus 3.5%), retail sales in China performed much better in March, rising 10.6% versus a 3.9% rise in industrial production, clearly the expected bounce in China is coming, 4.5% GDP in Q1 is higher than expectations of 4% >>> JPM upgrades 2023 GDP to 6.4% (from 6%)
U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy pledged Monday that the narrow Republican majority in the House of Representatives will vote to raise the country’s debt ceiling to avert a default on the government’s financial obligations in the coming months, but will also stipulate that future spending increases be capped at 1%.
In last few years copper has spent more time above $4 than ever before, not enough investment in new supply facing huge electrification demand
More than $440bn has poured into US money market funds since early March, according to data provider EPFR, in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, and as attractive returns drove investors out of ordinary deposit accounts
GS-GOLD : Central Bank demand as a % of gold annual supply:2010s: ~10% and 2022-2023: ~30%, goes long way to explain good performance of XAU in the face of higher rates
"We view the recent rally as irrational and believe it was mainly driven by systematic inflows and short covering, but these drivers are likely running out of steam" --JPM
Crisis in the German housing sector is deepening. The number of building permits for dwellings fell by an astonishing 20.6% in February. This was the 10th consecutive decline due to higher interest rates & construction costs/Thread
Christine Lagarde says US-China rift to push inflation higher
UBS on Tuesday said it was making changes to its $6 billion share buyback programme following its takeover of Credit Suisse >>> While filed lawsuits by bondholders over Credit Suisse’s emergency takeover are becoming increasingly menacing for Switzerland, the damage to investor confidence could be irreversible and Qatar reportedly trying to sell Swiss hotels after Credit Suisse debacle and to top it off, Swiss food staples up to 20% more expensive from last year
Calstrs CIO to FT : "Office real estate is probably down about 20 per cent in value, just based on the rise of interest rates"
Bögg : sorry folks looks like it's going to be a very wet summer - bit of an old swiss ritual but here you go !
UK wage growth at5.9% in Feb, higher than expected, but real wage growth was still negative, with inflation still far too high
Markets :
Copper - higher for longer - long term chart below just for big picture view
SPX500 holds in there very well, VOLS/VIX super low, supporting price action short-term, if you are looking for a 3-6months 'edge' - it's cheap !
USDollar not doing too much, but didn't exactly roar higher on higher UST yields last few days, higher yields=higher crossjpy's
UST yields picked up quite a bit actually last few days again, 2y UST yields 4.20% again! and 10y 3.60%
BofA FundManagerSurvey : Long big tech / short US banks : most crowded trade
It's not a bank though (yet anyway..)
Pension fund Calstrs braces for writedowns in $50bn property portfolio | Financial Times (ft.com) Warning from $306bn fund is latest sign that higher interest rates have upended US commercial real estate market, market been anticipating this and pricing it - to a large extent already, but pretty nasty situation
Copper : a tendency for price to spend time at higher levels - long-term #glencore etc
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