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Copper / U.S-RU 'agreed' ceasefire in BlackSea / Miran / Carney : to reform-spend / Not all will be clear on April 2

Writer: StéphanStéphan
3 days ago4 min read


  • Windy road ahead, will not all be clear by April 2

  • Markets : Trump softening his tariffs tone or taking a '' more flexible' tone, giving a bit fo relief to equity markets (slightly softer USD again), note GS not convinced. Slightly softer UK inflation and Spring statement today. SPX500 above 200dma, might push towards 5900 area now, tactically, one can consider re-selling/hedging SXP after month-quarter-end buying (on lower vols, VIX etc) and ahead of 'liberation day'

  • Copper on highs on Comex, tariffs threat (15% or so arbitrage with LME..)

  • Equities aren’t close to pricing in the suite of growth negative policies already in place let alone a fresh round of tariffs on Liberation Day >>> however, looking through the noise, what Trump Team 'really ideally' wants is a lower USDollar and lower UST yields (lower commodity prices and thus inflation, BUT higher spending = more debt issuance.. #duration risk..) - crude only smalls lower, the key is getting other countries to SPEND so US can pull back, as it has already...push Germany, EU to spend (done), China, Canada (see below..)

  • Before November last year, Stephen Miran was a little known economist, but a week after President Trump’s election he published a paper that set the financial world on fire. “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trade System” calls for a weaker US dollar and big tariff hikes/link below

  • The U.S.-Russia agreed on ceasefire in the Black Sea, removal of sanctions on Russia in agriculture and logistics, and to develop specific implementation on the energy infrastructure ceasefire. "The United States will help restore Russia's access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions" -- White House statement #wheat #corn

  • Time is being called on “US exceptionalism”

  • Ouch: March ⁦Phily Fed Services Index down to -32.5 vs. -13.1 prior … a new cycle low, with new orders falling to -19.5 vs. -1.3 prior, prices paid rising to +36 vs. +23.4 prior, and Conference Board survey on consumer sentiment for March: -Lowest level since Jan 21 (worse than the Jul 22 nadir of Biden's presidency, when inflation hit 9%)

  • You can start drinking orange juice again and eat eggs for breakfast, price down 60% or so this month!

  • Mark Carney is setting the stage to make  a superpower. He's uniting the provinces to remove trade barriers. he's uniting the Western world amid the USA isolationist policies. He's going to build a trade & transportation corridor to move critical minerals, O&G & information

  • Fed's Goolsbee sees lower interest rates in a year's time, but warns of uncertainties, FT reports


 






PRIL 2 COULD BRING NEGATIVE TARIFF SURPRISE: GOLDMAN SACHS Goldman Sachs economists note recent media reports have suggested the Trump administration is leaning in a more benign direction on tariffs. Don't be fooled, they write: That attitude probably sets markets up for a negative surprise. Goldman notes that the Trump admin has seen tariffs as a negotiating tool, and will likely want to start from a position of strength. A recent Goldman survey shows that market participants believe reciprocal tariffs coming in April will amount to a 9% reciprocal tariff rate. Goldman itself expects that the initial tariff rate could be double that, which would set the market up for a negative surprise next week.





Lots of doom out there







 
 
 

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