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Writer's pictureStéphan

Copper 1y lows / UST 10's yield top 5%, USD, risk follows, USDJPY.? / Next 6 of big 7's next up



  • UST 10's 'top' 5% and retrace, will this be ?..far too early to tell, momentarily why not

  • Israel is about to make a terrible mistake article by Thomas Friedman (below), Hamas releases a couple of hostages overnight

  • Only two of the eight candidates for House speaker, Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Rep. Austin Scott, voted to certify President Joe Biden's victory in 2020 presidential election

  • World oil, gas, coal demand to peak by 2030, IEA says

  • Hang Seng mainland property index is down 80% since 2019/2020 period, underpinning the huge issues in the sectors we've all heard in the last 12months and China's Nasdaq-Style Index falls to record low: Star 50 index, which tracks manufacturers, chipmakers & biggest comps on Star Board, falls to lowest since its inception >3yrs ago

  • UK August ILO unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.3% expected

  • Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -28.1 vs -26.6 expected

  • ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks drive US equity domination to new highs Handful of companies propel all of this year’s gains in the MSCI All-Country World index, earnings coming up, TSLA was 1st one out with earnings last week (softer)

  • Chevron buying Hess for $53 billion in latest major Oil Deal >> no premium 'paid', sector

  • Investors demand highest premium in years to hold risky European debt

  • Spreads on euro-denominated junk bonds rise to widest levels since 2016

 

Markets :
  • Cocoa prices rose to 45y highs, bad time for choccy lovers like me

  • 10's UST relatively sharp turn off 5.01% top, the Ackmann top they call it

  • USDollar duly follows softer and risk ticked up, Nasdaq100 held those late Sep, early Oct lows again around 14'500 level, SPX500 around 200 dma >>> ALL about what the rest of the big 7's earnings reports and price action thereafter

  • Copper hit a 1y low as well

  • BTC 34K quietly, on ETF optimism!

  • GOLD 'stalling' ahead of $2k resistance again, market no longer short XAU !

  • BONDS move first, USD and risk (QQQ mainly) followed, pretty classic price action yesterday

 







What is the risk of a short squeeze now? "Still present, but potentially delayed...A squeeze might not accelerate unless we get

1) evidence consumer spending isn’t slowing too much

2) relatively good earnings season

3) Fed communicating they’re on hold

Given the conditions that might have to be met, a sustained move higher in shorts seems like a greater possibility in Nov than right now" (JPM Position Intelligence)




Good read >>>> But if Israel feels it must reoccupy Gaza to destroy Hamas and restore its deterrence and security — I repeat — it must pair that military operation with a new commitment to pursue a two-state solution with those Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza ready to make peace with Israel







USDJPY failed to crack 150+... if ever there was a time to try top short a few USDJPY ..




Copper



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