The ECB is set to decide whether to raise its key interest rate to a record peak in what should be its final step in the fight against inflation, or take a break as the economy deteriorates >>> 'faites vox jeux, rien de va plus!' markets had a 25bps priced in, before the data turned sour lately and expectations shifted to a 'hold', then markets more inclined towards a final hike after that HICP leak 2days ago.. + quadruple witching tomorrow for potential higher vol, UBS Strategists see more profit warnings, volatility in Europe
The 1973 Oil Crisis And The Experts’ Circular Firing Squad, a very good commentary about how the ' the expert consensus' can get it all wrong.. / Forbes article below
U.S CPI above on core and super core though, with quite a few segments flat or down, so something in this for all... markets had indeed expecting higher core so bond market shrugged it all off on the day..
GS: "Interesting to get this data where today where airfares drove the inflation (swinging to +4.9% from -8% in both Jun and Jul ) yet multiple airlines have come out talking about slowing bookings (y'day - AAL, UAL, JBLU traded down >4% ). "
ARM: UK chip designer in $54.5bn market return
Swiss authorities say they want to stop their banks laundering the cash of tax-evading tycoons, international gangsters and oligarchs
CHF : Difficult conditions in important export markets such as Germany and China will weigh on the Swiss economy in the coming months, according to Swiss Life economists, who have revised their growth forecasts downwards
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sells another $27 million worth of Nvidia shares. He has now sold $70 million worth of shares over the last week >>> which is allowed! 'insider' selling sometimes does influence market sentiment overall though..
FT-‘Everything is tired here’: gloom spreads through German manufacturing. Disruptions compound longer-term structural problems including labour shortages and a lack of investment
China's central bank has asked some of the country's biggest lenders to refrain from immediately squaring their FX positions in the market, and to run open positions for a while in order to alleviate downside pressure on the yuan >> in other words called ''capital controls''
Mexican lawmakers hear disputed testimony showing 'existence of alien life' ..!
US govt spending increased 9% over the last year while tax receipts declined 8%, this is not something you should try at home !
"I think this meeting may go down in history as being very important for the future of civilization," Elon Musk said on the AI summit in Washington DC
BoA on oil: OPEC+ cuts, Asia demand - "Brent prices could spike past $100/bbl"
Markets :
EURO >>> it's ECB day, half the pundits thing a hike, the other half does not, market has priced in a hawkish hike already, a 'sustained' rally in EURO after ECB looks difficult, and a move towards 1.0500 area more likely over next few weeks. USDCNH a little softer on PBOC controls, CABLE 1.2450 key med term support, AUDUSD up a little overnight on decent jod data, EURCHF lost downside momentum ? (lets see after ECB meeting)
UST's not a whole lot diff, but 10's hit 2.32 or so on the CPI headline, again higher CPI was expected and priced...PPI next up today, at the end of the day core and super core CPI was higher, some will argue accelerating again..
Equity markets : if I had to pick a side, I would be 'cautious' into quarter-end, as we know though ODTE daily options can take us anywhere for the next 2-3pct on SPX or NQ
WTI near $90 staying firm(er), unless something dramatic changes, looks to be heading higher towards $100
Cocoa hits highest closing price in 44 years! Guess no Heissi Schoki this winter !
The markets are dealing with higher interest rates (mortgages, credit cards and so on), higher gas prices, diesel, higher lending standards basically, key now is 'employment'^, which could derail this relatively positive market sentiment - goes both ways, but quarter-end usually bring decent volatility..
Finally, self-reflection seems to rarely leave the therapist’s office. Communist regimes were famous for ‘self-criticism’ events, where those who disagreed with the Party line were made to acknowledge and apologize for their deviant thinking. The opposite is often true in the West, where analysis of failure is criticized as blame-seeking. Few like to dwell on past mistakes and most are reluctant to criticize their friends, colleagues, and/or organizations. The result is a borad failure to learn from mistakes, as M.I.T.’s Steve VanEvera pointed out two decades ago.
UBS Strategists See More Profit Warnings, Volatility in Europe By Michael Msika
(Bloomberg) -- UBS strategists expect European stocks to break out of their recent range to drop about 10% by the end of the year, as the risk of profit warnings for companies in the region is rising.
“The 450-470 range may not last much longer” for the Stoxx 600, strategists Gerry Fowler and Sutanya Chedda write, seeing the benchmark ending the year at 410 index points — implying about 10% downside
UBS analysis indicates weakening new orders and backlogs among European firms, raising the risk of profit warnings. More downside in earnings trends should also raise volatility, they say
Obscene power these guys have, it probably was just a fund raising exercise for politicos!! They have become So large over the last 20y, thanks to partly zero rates.. that it is hard to think they get told what to do or not to do by any politicians... The U.S vs Google will be interesting for that reason but it'll go on for months. The EU is fighting whether we like it or not and getting some results (mostly fines!)
Switzerland To Act Against Dirty Cash? - The Globalist >>> ''But a heavy dose of skepticism is needed''.. indeed
Outlook weakens for Swiss economy - SWI swissinfo.ch super strong CHF getting painful
That's as close as it gets to capital controls..
That was quick! ... no messing about there that's for sure
China been there for a decade or more... so has Russia.. better late than never !
OH !
EURUSD - all about Christine this afternoon, lets see overall USD should stay firm(er), CABLE 1.2450 area key, on the other side PBOC would seem to have topped & controlled USDCNH
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