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Crude, commods softer / TGA drain in Q2 / BoJ meeting / SPX500 4150-4200 tops



  • Crude back to lower levels, other commodities softer, slower demand, while inflation remains pretty sticky on higher ground, calls of slowdown, recession on the increase

  • BoJ : big week, as a brand new and untested Ueda holds his 1st policy meeting after a decade of Kurodanomics

  • Stern warning from Citi, as markets buckle up for $600-800B CB liquidity drain in coming weeks “With peak liquidity past, we would not be at all surprised if markets were now to experience a sudden pressure loss. Keep watching the liquidity data — and buckle up.”

  • Chile is nationalizing new lithium production, vowing "no more mining for the few"

  • Credit Suisse clients pulled out CHF61.2 billion ($68.5 billion) of their assets in the first three months of the year as they rushed to leave the collapsing bank

  • ECB's Wunsch says wouldn't be surprised if rates hit 4% at some point

  • Silver Demand set records in every category in 2022

  • Bank run in slow motion continues. Deposits at US banks fell by $76.2bn last week even before tax payments, indicating the financial system remains fragile after a string of bank failures. The drop was mostly at large and foreign institutions, but they also fell at small banks

  • Germany is now a NET importer of electricity in Europe

 

Markets :
  • XPT would appear to breaking up (chart)

  • Crude breaking down back to where/when OPEC+ cut output, Iron Ore, steel and few others softer too, Gold struggling too above $2k, slower demand/risk recession etc

  • USDollar pretty rangy, same as SPX500, consolidation lately, watch out for short-term levels / change of momentum. Big 10-20 stocks weighting holding up indexes, picture really not that pretty underneath

 





crazy stuff when you think about it.. !!





Morgan Stanley's PB Strategic Content team underscores a continuation of past weeks’ trends – relatively muted flows, a slight tilt towards selling Global Equities, gross leverage that stayed constant at 185%, and net leverage that ticked 2% lower WoW to 45% for US Equity L/S funds. Furthermore, crowded longs and shorts performed in-line with one another, resulting in flat L/S alpha. (MS)




Just another silly idea that sounded great and isn't for many diff reasons






Platinum prices - maybe false break up since all other commods softer








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