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Writer's pictureStéphan

Crude up again on Biden comments / Ishiba / Trump not happy / U.S port workers +62% / NFP up next




  • U.S discussed Israel striking Iran oil facilities, crude up about 10% this week

  • For today : Ishiba inconsistent (see below-tells cabinet to compile stimulus package) JPY back up a little (might work on risk-off again), all ears and eyes on NFP (exp around 140K and 4.2%, ALL about rates in 2024) + weekend risk with Middle East principally. Overall, equity markets seeing some profit taking in the hot M7 over last 10days, went straight into China, energy, copper, Iron ore, Gold related stocks, now the China macro questions comes (will it work or not, time will tell ! some might take profits on China longs already next week), valuations do not really support much further improvement in Q4, earnings downgrades likely to hurt still, but liquidities plenty/CB rate cuts 'put' ! >>> plenty of potential VOLATILITY ahead in Q4, play accordingly in short-term daily, weekly moves, as CHINA story showed recently, strategist in banks went from ''it's uninvestable to lets buy it, because my benchmark says buy, I have to buy''. USD picked up a little again (weak into quarter.-end..) held the key levels we often mentioned towards end of Q3, namely 1.12 EURO, 1.3250 CABLE, .68+ AUDUSD, 140 USDJPY and 0.83-0.8400 USDCHF.

  • U.S. Port Workers Agree to End Their Strike Companies sweeten contract offer to a 62% wage increase to reopen ports from Maine to Texas

  • Italy plans windfall tax on companies to narrow deficit. Italy to ask firms including defense companies to contribute to budget

  • Small but important steps in EU-UK relation

  • Russian court freezes funds of US banks JP Morgan and Mellon

  • Donald Trump is clearly not happy about the release of a bonbshell 165-page motion Wednesday filed by Special Counsel Jack Smith which lays out a sprawling timeline of how the former president attempted to claw his way back into power after losing the 2020 election

  • Reeves raises hopes of investment surge as she attacks Tory plans. UK chancellor vows to avoid ‘mistakes’ of Jeremy Hunt and stokes optimism that spending could surpass manifesto

  • Euro area growth figures mask significant heterogeneity across countries/Schnabel


 

U.S. Port Workers Agree to End Their Strike - WSJ >>> 62% over six years, $63 an hour from $39 an hour...not bad!







Sterling plunges 1% after Bank of England governor's comments on rates (cnbc.com) ''got to love these headlines : ''plunges 1%''...good grief)..just a bit of long #positioning been all hopeful on GBP lately








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