Goldman Sachs: "We estimate that global oil demand has risen to an all-time high in July of 102.8m b/d"...
U.S PCE for June slowed more than exp. to 0.165% MoM, 4.1% YoY, lowest since Sep 2021, Kashkari talking 50/50 for Sep, nothing that inflation outlook was quite positive
JPY backed off after BoJ, as most of the move happened before BoJ meeting (RR flipped quickly on Friday morning for JPY puts, market took profit on their long JPYcalls), Goldman, Morgan Stanley say BOJ's latest move will boost Japanese stocks, IN FACT they bought 10y JGB's this morning as an 'emergency operation'!
UBS on Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control - ceiling seems to be 1%, let's see when it'll be tested
Germany faces 5 tough years, economy minister warns. Berlin should borrow money to subsidize energy for companies or risk losing its industry, Robert Habeck cautions
G4 Central Banks Balance Sheet, Normalization... Still far away >> from 26trn to 22trn, it was 16trn before covid
China : For all the excitement, most of these measures don't expand consumption at all. They are designed to "encourage" consumption/Thread from M.Pettis, but quite a few arguments elsewhere that it should encourage equity investments locally again..
The S&P 500 is now 5% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022
Lagarde : ECB made very good progress on inflation, 'could hike again after a pause', ECB's Nagel says eurozone core inflation is stubborn, need interest rates kept high
Inflation profiteering charge leveled at Swiss retailers
Markets :
10y UST 4%, still in this goldilocks range, might be time to watch out though 3.8/4.1% ranged more recently to keep an eye on!
FX : JPY back to 3week lows, BoJ tweak not enough, CROSSJPY's rally together with USDJPY, the RR move Friday morning was the tell, mixed USD moves, a little bit of CHF weakness (very relative). Norges Bank will purchase equivalent to NOK 1B per day in August 2023, unch from July
Equity markets continue to enjoy their goldilocks moment, 'meme' stocks joining in, more broad based rally seen, NIKKEI back up, HSI Techs in focus too etc. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 19.4 is above the 5-year average (18.6) and above the 10-year average (17.4).
Crude WTI $80+ continue to hold well, sticking with view risk is higher still, big July rally in cruide and various commodities, which makes you think about another kick in inflation..
Market breath : ''Looking at the percentage of SPX members that are trading over their respective 50DMAs - this metric nearly hit 90% this week, and that has typically coincided with extremely positive performance going forward, with the SPX averaging 15% 12mo perf and positive returns after nearly every single occurrence of breaking 85%. That being said, there are reasons to be cautious. First, nearly every historical occurrence came after a recession or fiscal / monetary / debt / trading crisis – arguably we haven’t gotten ours yet. Second, these periods of broad stock gains don’t seem to last very long''
USDJPY - never traded below 138JPY for the $ bulls to be challenged... risk is up and away again
Comentarios