Let's try to describe 2022 is a few words : this is when financial fantasy, misconception or even hallucination ended, and when real life, authenticity or realism came back with a vengeance
Not many wanted to see inflation clearly heading north in early 2022 or even late 2021, we did. Not many wanted to accept that rates had to go higher and that QE had to stop, after $30trn of phoney money created last 7+years. We often talked about it : It really changed everything, inflation changed everything, but many are still fighting this idea, as in, rates will come back down in 2023 or 2024 and everything will be fine, it might be, but we continue to think rates will be ''high(er) for longer''
ZIRP, NIRP, free money allowed crazy misallocation of capital and crazy bizz models were put together on the back of a 'fag packet' over the last few years
Negative-yielding bonds finally all gone (should have never happened..), remember those, remember that 100y Austria bond ?
NO more coins to pump and dump and 'meme stocks' , NO more cheap electricity to mine silly Dogecoin and others
De-Globalization is en route, after 30+ years of keeping/forcing inflation down with cheap labour in China/Asia, it's over
NO more QE, more like QT now
Almost ALL developed and emerging market Central Banks are or have been tightening in 2022 - they may not tighten much in 2023, but it doesn't mean they will cut rates in any hurry
Back to reality for many years to come, which is excellent, though it will require some major adjustments in the kind of investments many folks do over next 5years+
Markets :
-next potential elephant in the room for 2023 is the Japanese Taper, which would cause big headaches not only in Japan/JPY etc
- SPX500 - we stick to the trend-chart below big picture, 'higher for longer' has more negative implications for QQQ, ARKK and al - still
-USD may have peaked in 2022, Petroyuan, ECB super hawkish in Dec (BUBA in charge now), RoW cannot continue to spend and increase debt, this game is OVER, bond vigilante spoke for the first time when Kamikaze stepped in, this WAS the first clear signal for everyone that governments HAD to behave now or their currencies (and long-end) would be trashed >>> it is no wonder since that UK episode, that ECB turned hawkish, and even BoJ finally got rid of YCC!
-Rates likely staying higher for longer, but not much higher in the US, Terminal rate 5%, rates cannot go much higher with so much debt around the world, best increase QT next
-Inflation has peaked, we know this, fine, it will go back down to 4-5% sure, but not 2%
-Recession or not in 2023, who knows, slowdown for sure, let's not be distracted by it and continue to invest in solid and sustainable businesses ! IMHO, recession calls from larger banks have become 'consensus', so many contrarian punters think there will be no recession. It is quite clear though, that the negative wealth shock from financial assets/stocks/crypto/bonds etc is seriously beginning to weigh on consumption spending
Not the case at PVM !
The internet-famous Shiba Inu who inspired 'doge' memes, and a joke cryptocurrency, is seriously ill with cancer (yahoo.com) can't believe i'm even putting this on here, so 2022 fiction stuff
sure was, one wonders if any party will change their tunes for the next election - never too late to accept that it was a major lie
SPX500 topside 4050/4150, trendline resistance and 200dma around 4010 now vs downside 3500-3700 area (lows in Sep-Oct)
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