BofA's Hartnett has what he calls “the Dirty Dozen” — 12 charts that he says indicate recession. TheSPX rally “from 3.8k to 4.1-4.2k likely run its course; we say ‘sell the last rate hike’ on May 3rd.” - Thread and the charts below
March saw biggest tightening in US Small Business Credit Availability since 2002 (joint 2nd biggest on record). NFIB confirms credit tightening happening as a result of bank failures. 1st clear sign for Fed to digest/Thread. NFP was strong on the surface, yet things like NFIB hiring plans were down to 15, a cycle low, so we can definitely find some weakness underneath
The issue with fewer bank deposits is that banks end up having to/forced to sell their asset books too, including UST's
Elon Musk is rebranding Twitter as X Corp. The name change is part of the billionaire's goal to make an "everything app". Musk Dismisses concerns about misinfo and hate on Twitter, jokes his Dog Floki is CEO now
FED talks yesterday : Williams sounded fairly hawkish, downplaying potential impact of headwinds from slower activity in credit (after SVB etc), while Goolsbee appearing to be dovish (monetary policy approach calling for prudence and patience on credit impact in markets)
Twenty S&P 500 stocks account for 90% of Wall Street’s gains this year
"Large speculators, mostly hedge funds, saw their net short positions in S&P 500 e-mini futures increase to roughly 321,000 contracts as of Tuesday, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That’s the most bearish reading since November 2011 following the downgrade of the US’s sovereign credit rating."
As part of the annual report for its System Open Market Account for 2022, the bank said that Fed holdings, which now stand at $8.7 trillion, will likely fall to around $6 trillion by the middle of 2025 before holding steady for around a year
Swiss parliament's lower house rejects Credit Suisse rescue package >>> all a bit symbolic... funds have already been committed ! politicians questioning the ''droit d'urgence'' and how often it's been used in recent years..
Markets :
ALL about CPI, HF positioning is short EQ and bonds..see above comments and below Thread + Hartnett's stuff
CHF did not weaken with all the CS stuff, you could almost think SNB was buying a few CHF to calm things down and not give the wrong impression!?.. SNB wants a strong currency to fight inflation..
XAGUSD breaking up (again CPI day so play accordingly) - chart below
Crude, commods, precious metals slightly higher, USDollar softer too, all will continue if/when U.S CPI shows signs of peaking, and vice versa!
Wind and solar generated a record amount of global power in 2022 (cnbc.com) >>> still a long way to go..An analysis published Wednesday by independent climate think tank Ember found that 12% of the world’s power came from solar and wind in 2022, up from 10% of global electricity generation in 2021.
''Droit d'urgence'' was never really ever used, then suddenly is 3 years or so it was used and abused ? with Covid funds, AXPO (enegy company) and now Credit Suisse... few political parties are questioning this process, is this democratic ?.. >>> Office fédéral de la justice: La Suisse est-elle devenue une république bananière? | Tribune de Genève (tdg.ch) stuff like this..
Shiveluch volcano in far-eastern Russia spews 10-kilometre-high ash plume, covering villages - ABC News crazy stuff, crazy pictures
XAGUSD >>> remember the last time we got to $30, margins were increased dramatically and markets corrected (you could call it manipulation..but there you go), let's see how far we go this time (over next few weeks-months, in 2011 when the US had an issue with debt ceiling we reached the $40+ levels..)
Comentários