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Writer's pictureStéphan

Dudley : Fed should 'cut now' / Trump odds ⏬ / Long QQQ vs JPY shorts unwinding... worst ever day for Mag7 ETF / #GOOG capex worries...



  • The S&P 500 officially closed the day 2.3% lower, ending its longest streak without a 2%+ decline since 2007 >>> all good things come to and end. Copper also down for the 8th consecutive day, MAG 7 ETF down 6% (easily its worst day ever) >>> Gamma acts as a throttle for volatility, volatility serves as a toggle for equity exposure (vols down, systematic buyers come in every day, last few months.. >>> now sub 5500 SPX and 19500 QQQ, markets short gamma...market structure matters! >>> #NVDA below 50dma etc >>> as if the whole world shorted JPY to buy anything else, including metals and BTC ?..

  • Ex-NY Fed's Bill Dudley: "I’ve long been in the 'higher for longer' camp...The facts have changed, so I’ve changed my mind. The Fed should cut, preferably at next week’s policy-making meeting.", citing growth and inflation data is now much softer >>> if the FED does not cut in July, market could go on and price 50bps cut in Sep

  • Trump odds are below where they were after the debate…>>> Musk also backs down from $45mio a month pledge to Trump

  • Signs of a weakening consumer keep mounting. The latest: the share of credit card balances past due reached a series high in Philly Fed data back to 2012. Some 2.6% of credit card balances were 60 days past due in Q1, up from a low of 1.1% reached in 2021

  • Two of Silicon Valley’s famous venture capitalists make the case for backing Trump: that their ability to make money is the only value that matters.

  • #GOOG clearly admitted in their earnings report that that not seeing adequate current ROIC on AI capex, most likely are over-investing, and struggling to provide concrete examples of killer apps deployed worldwide, also emphasized that adoption of new technologies takes time.... >>> "AI is sucking all of the oxygen out of the room," Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson tells Yahoo Finance, adding: "I see AI everywhere, except in the numbers. ... It hasn't really driven revenues and earnings anywhere."

  • Bank of Canada cuts 25bps, will cut further into year-end

  • Ford profitability skids on higher warranty costs, EV losses

  • U.S. will pay $1.14 trillion in interest payments on debt this year

  • U.S Credit Card Balances past due reach highest level in more than 12 years

  • Fact Check: Trump Claimed His Ear Began Regrowing Day After Assassination Attempt?


 

















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