Rates Spark: The ECB pushes back, Chief Economist Philip Lane initiated the renewed pushback already over the weekend, when he cautioned against recalibrating policy too early, ECB's Holzman ''we shouldn't count on rate cuts at all in 2024'..Fed's Waller speaks later on today (he was one of the key cause of markets turning dovish in November)..
BofA FM survey : ''a record 91% of investors expect short-term rates to be lower in the next 12months, from 87% in Dec'' and that is the big risk >> 150bps etc a lot priced in already
IMF's Gopinath ''exuberance has made the soft landing challenge harder
Iowa Caucus results: Trump wins majority, Ramaswamy drops out
Houthi militants hit a US-owned container vessel with a missile in the Gulf of Aden. Gibraltar Eagle, carrying steel products, suffered limited damage. Washington warned its merchant ships to avoid the area. PM Rishi Sunak told Parliament that the UK wants to reduce tensions and its air strikes are “self-defense.”
Ra'anana: One dead and 12 injured in terror attack near Tel Aviv, Israel's emergency services say
War of words after Taiwan election highlights the intractable divide over the island's fate
Africa’s biggest oil refinery has begun production in Nigeria after a yearslong wait
'Both the number and percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q4 2023 are above their 5-year and 10-year averages.'
"The era of the peace dividend is over." UK's Grant Shapps urges "all allied and democratic nations" to ensure their defence budgets are growing, warning of growing conflict over the next five years
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard deployed in Yemen
Maersk hopes international interventions, naval presence will allow Red Sea transit to return
Markets :
EURCHF : 9y ago, it fell out of bed, as SNB walked away from the 1.2000 floor
SPX500 4800 double top for now, stay cautious
USDollar getting some traction USDJPY initially over last 2weeks, AUDUSD breaks down through key support yesterday, keep an eye on USDCHF even (positive momentum while above 0.8550+), EURUSD sub 1.0925 area is bearish too, USDCNH testing 7.20 again too..
ECB pushing back on early rate cuts Priced in already, a LOT priced in the U.S too and elsewhere, 10's UST back to 4%
TAKE some/any charts from early November 2023 ! we are correcting
Maersk hopes international interventions, naval presence will allow Red Sea transit to return (msn.com)
Michael Pettis on X: "SCMP: "Some of China’s most prominent tycoons are committed to reining in debt, and are also eying the overseas market for increased growth this year, despite Beijing’s attempt to play up domestic economic prospects and calls for more private investment." https://t.co/okKlL3zKao" / X (twitter.com)
Good reasons to believe that all parties involved should be around the table
War of words after Taiwan election highlights the intractable divide over the island's fate (qz.com)
Africa’s biggest oil refinery begins production in Nigeria with the aim of reducing need for imports (qz.com)
Why..?
SPX500 - all eq indices have fairly similar picture
USDCHF - bullish while above 0.8550+
Yesterday's chart - pretty clear - AUDUSD
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