Powell : data dependent as always, signal is that March pricing is a little optimistic, ''March cut not the base case', while the FOMC dropped the tightening bias in the statement, it said that cuts would not be appropriate until there was more confidence that inflation was heading back to 2%, added that the committee did expect lower rates this year - while a strong labour market would not push back the timing of the first cut, the Fed would cut faster if employment weakened >>> which confirms that payroll data is the key going forward >>> Saxo : FOMC: a March QT taper could serve as an implicit rate cut/Thread(s)
EU to delay new green rule in bid to appease protesting farmers. Delay to rules on setting aside land to encourage biodiversity offered as concession amid continuing protests
China overtakes Japan as world's biggest vehicle exporter
World's biggest iceberg on the move after 30 years
Switzerland January manufacturing PMI 43.1 vs 44.5 expected, Riksbank unch, BoE will be unch all as expected - "interest rate can be cut sooner than what was expected in November", the main question is market pricing vs path/speed of rate cuts overall, whether inflation really heads towards their 2% target and when
Saxo : Yellen says Coupon issuance is also going to increase in Q2 >>> What is record-high issuance combined with QT going to do? ->steepening of the YC >> Thread
The market response to a surprise loss at NY Community Bancorp, with Treasury yields plunging and a drop in broader stocks, hints at deeper concerns about commercial real estate & smaller banks
German inflation slows to 2.9% in January from 3.7% in December, lowest level since June 2021. Core CPI slows to 3.4% in Jan from 3.5% in Dec, lowest level June 2022. Energy in deflation, Energy prices dropped -2.8% YoY, Food CPI slowed to 3.8% from 4.5% in Dec
US Treasury confirms spending on debt interest now larger than entire Defense Budget.... and will soon surpass entire Social Security budget
Markets :
JPY strengthened somewhat (softer yields overall-carry peak ?) NIKKEI noticed/short-term peak. CHF weakness didn't last long! markets not interested by swissie weakness !
Huge strain in the 2 largest African economies, Nigeria devalued the naira by about 30% (after another ~30% devaluation last June). And Egypt is under pressure to devalue too, with the pound some 50% weaker in the black market
NASDAQ : that 'bearish candle' on charts got confirmed yesterday, SPX500 support is 4800 previous tops/resistance. BofA writes: "...forward returns when sentiment hits euphoria are not appalling in a bull market. Especially when the market breadth is running at healthy levels, such as today’s."
BONDS rallied, curve should steepen overall
Sentiment : French/German inflation lower, a pretty low ADP employment number in the U.S, tech earnings disappointing/not meeting super high expectations more like, and some issue with few regional banks again in U.S and JPN. Technically, a few 'bearish' daily charts, momentum might change, after this huge risk rally since last October
GOLD looks to be about to break higher vs no less than 6 major currencies (vs GBP, EURO, CNH, KRW, JPY and USD)
OIL MARKET: Another month of huge revisions to US oil demand data/EIA
Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Yellen's🍒on the cake: Coupon issuance is also going to increase in Q2. What is record-high issuance combined with QT going to do? ->🧸steepening of the YC Powell is listening, and a tapering of QT might come to hand. Link to QRA: https://t.co/AjX8YFQMyb https://t.co/8zYuTAYN8R" / X (twitter.com)
Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸FOMC: a March QT taper could serve as an implicit rate cut. That way, the Fed would still be in line with market expectations to deliver 5 cuts by year-end, fuelling a bond rally. ⚠️That doesn't mean the Fed will deliver such cuts. However, the market will be euphoric." / X (twitter.com)
Nick Timiraos on X: "Rates unchanged FOMC statement gets a big rewrite. Tightening bias gone, but in a way that says a cut isn’t necessarily imminent. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate” to cut “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably" to 2% https://t.co/Rzs7fFE8hv" / X (twitter.com)
Javier Blas on X: "[ICYMI] COLUMN: No, Saudi Arabia didn't just signaled the end of oil. "What’s true, and has been for a while, is that the world is transitioning away from Saudi crude to American oil — not just from the US, but also Canada, Brazil and Guyana." @Opinion https://t.co/u69xTYf3sG" / X (twitter.com)
Thai court orders election-winning party to end its royal reform campaign in blow to voters who backed change (yahoo.com)
A23a: World's biggest iceberg on the move after 30 years - BBC News Amazing pictures
The world’s largest iceberg is voyaging through the Antarctic waters after more than 30 years being stuck to the ocean floor. The frozen mass is almost 4,000 sq km, more than twice the size of greater London, has been drifting at speed and is about to spill beyond Antarctic boundaries
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