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Ermotti back / BoJ no tweak / GfK / Softer Oz inflation / BABA / Happy Finland !




  • Finland is the world's happiest country. Now it's giving away free trips to show travelers why

  • A Single Bet on Deutsche Bank’s Credit Default Swaps Is Seen Behind Friday’s Rout - what a market! so illiquid and nuts as we keep warning folks in single names, when they come into focus, for whatever reason, there is little or no liquidity...CDS seems to be the new game in town doe daily punters..

  • #BABA plans to split its $220 billion empire into six main units that will individually raise funds and explore initial public offerings, the biggest overhaul of China’s e-commerce leader since its inception more than two decades ago

  • Michael Barr: “SVB failed because the bank's management did not effectively manage its interest rate and liquidity risk, and the bank then suffered a devastating and unexpected run by its uninsured depositors in a period of less than 24 hours.”...all they had to do is manage risk of whether rates went up or not..hummm>>> The Silicon Valley Bank failure brought the health of the US banking sector into question. Large and small banks are very different in the US, especially after the 2008 crisis (Thread below)

  • Depositors have withdrawn 214 billion euros from EU banks over the past five months, with outflows hitting a record level in February: ECB data. The withdrawals in the five months since October have been worth 1.5% of eurozone deposits (..only..). U.S : Small banks' (not in the top 25) deposits fell $125bil last week, $65bil of which went to the top 25 large banks, not good for communities as small community banks will have to tighten credit availability

  • Wildfires in Spain (in March!!..) are a sign of climate emergency, says the country’s PM >>> It was 27 °C in Lisbon yesterday.... Insane

  • "virtually every client conversation reveals that investors expect something else to break in the market though there is no consensus about what that could be" - JPM

  • Swiss Parliament pushed through a 'SolarExpress' program last fall to install lots of solar projects in the Alps. They forgot a few things....see thread below

  • Australia's Feb inflation slows to 8-month low, adding to rate pause case, 6.8% (exp 7.1% and prior 7.4%)

  • Incoming BOJ deputy head brushes aside near-term tweak to easy policy

  • Sweden's real retail sales are down a whopping 9.5% YoY >>> 'the retail sales volume is now back at a similar level as before the pandemic - whaoo

  • Despite banking crisis, GfK consumer confidence Index improved for 6th time in a row, from -30.6 to -29.5 (was +10 pre covid though, so long way to go)

  • BRICS should add new members and counter the dollar's dominance, says Jim O’Neill, who coined the acronym after which the bloc is named

  • UBS' Kelleher: This not a Swiss solution, it's a global solution - see chart below

 

Markets :
  • NQ : clearly mega cap names been benefiting lately, not that positive under the hood /- Thread below. SPX500 retakes 4K, 4050+ would surprise the bears

  • FXland, CROSSJPY's higher with rates bottoming last Friday, perhaps some quarter-end JPY selling and/or JPN lifers keen to buy foreign bonds into the new year..

  • BONDS - pretty crazy March - extreme levels of implied vols, daily volatily, completely crazy to think a 5mio CDS trade in DN could unravel markets last Friday.. (in a specific credit tranche) >>> PEAK worries, PEAK credit fear last week >>> still doesn't mean its over clearly still some fear in there clearly..it will take a while to heal

  • Crude : we also saw some sort of capitulation sell-off last week, almost undeniable - recovery path from here, the U.S will probably buy for the SPR..

 






A bad day for Putin last 48hours:

⁃China renewed calls for de-escalation in Ukraine today and reminded Russia of its recent opposition to nuclear war days after Putin announced plans to deploy strategic arms in neighbouring Belarus

⁃Hungarian parliament approves Finland's NATO membership bid. ⁃Armenia plans to join the Rome Statute of the ICC

⁃Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark struck a deal to run their 200+ advanced fighter jets as a single fleet

⁃Bakhmut holds, despite all Russian efforts

⁃Russian bid for UN Nord Stream blast inquiry fails

-France planning to give 40 Mirage200-9 fighter/interceptor jets to Ukraine -British Challenger Main Battle Tanks have arrived in Ukraine -German Leopard 2 tanks have arrived



It's only MARCH !!!! this is so bad, no much reporting about it all in the media - why ???

meanwhile in California.. its flooding How California floods affect US food prices - BBC News




Sacre bleu !



Whaoo



UBS - been CHF 10 - 20 range for 15years





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