President Biden entered the White House with the goal of ending the “forever wars” that had consumed America for two decades and instead focusing on domestic priorities and girding the U.S. to compete with China/WSJ. American troops at risk across Middle East amid rising tensions, US warns, war of words and demonstration of strength at seas, lots going behind the scenes between various parties.
Busy week ahead : deeper into earnings season, plenty of macro data, Fed speaker last week, more importantly Powell didn't walk back his relatively hawkish stance, high tension in geopolitics, U.S, Chinese warships in the Middle East, worrying build up
BoJ may review Yield-Curve Control policy as rates rise: Nikkei
S&P returns Greece's credit rating to investment grade, drops negative outlook on UK credit rating
Apple supplier Foxconn subjected to tax inspections by Chinese authorities
Jim Jordan dropped out of the race for House Speaker
The US govt said its deficit rose to $1.78tn, or 6.3% of GDP in the year ended Sept. 30, from $1.4tn, or 5.4% of GDP, a year earlier. Without an accounting change related to the admin’s aborted student-loan-cancellation program, deficit would have been closer to $2tn, a doubling from the prior year
China stocks have wiped out all of their gains since reopening from pandemic lockdowns
Argentina’s economy minister Sergio Massa scores first-round election win over Javier Milei
ESG is beyond redemption: may it RIP. The investing framework is now facing a mountain of troubles, almost all of them of its own making >>> such a big marketing fools tools for big institutions, clients came second
Why big oil is beefing up its trading arms
Markets :
HYG (chart) having a bad month, specifically longer-dated corporate bonds, time premia etc >>> long-term yields, expansion of term premiums, technicals (supply-demand in T market), momentum funds selling and fundamentals (fiscal sustainbility..33trn$+ and going) and slightly stronger U.S growth/data all combining to keep UST's under pressure, duration selling-off, credit remains 'the' key for markets, higher credit leads to higher capital costs for corporations, balance-sheet analysis more than important than in a very long-time..
Crude steady, though...Global crude oil in floating storage declines to near 4-year low
UST yields higher, USD steady to slightly higher, risk 'heavy' going into big earning's week
BTC 31K !
Gold testing recent highs just shy of $2000, though showing signs of breaking higher vs other major currencies. XAGUSD been consolidating for long while (chart)
SPX big earnings week, SPX500 around 200dma, clearly a big test/moment for momentum into year-end
1. Large capital equipment decisions are being deferred. 2. Global manufacturing momentum (IP growth) is already recessionary. 3. Leading companies (eg. ASML, Tesla) are highlighting the effects of higher rates on their businesses. 4. Destocking is still at an intermediate phase. 5. Order softness is no longer confined to one region (eg. China) or end-market (eg. construction). 6. Capital Goods companies have been over-earning in areas like Electrification and Distribution – this is where the future margin risks lie. 7. Buffett Indicator suggests ~15% sector downside to post GFC valuation levels, >50% to pre-GFC (1995 – 2010).
Israel-Hamas Latest: US Should Punish Iran for Proxies' Attacks - Bloomberg seems this is what they are planning or preparing for American troops at risk across Middle East amid rising tensions, US warns (ft.com)
This big build up is a little worrying - dangerous times
HYG - just to put things in perspective
Silver - been consolidating for a long while, 30+ anyone ?
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