Central banks direction ?.. Markets been pricing in for a while, an almost certain 25bps for both Fed and ECB this week, it'll be ALL about the language going forward..Goldman Sachs are still expecting the Bank of Japan will tweak YCC policy this week, just when inflation in Japan and the U.S is 'converging'
French July manufactuting PMI weaker at 44.5 (exp 46), and German PMI even worse at 38.8! (expected 41) >>> The ECB is pretty stubborn in inflation , the same ECB that didn't see inflation coming while back...but you have to really wonder about these PMI numbers whether they terrible enough for Lagarde to blink... and whether raising rates further from here is a big mistake... (reminder though that rates peaking does not mean lower rates...imho) >>> 25bps
SNB total sight deposits w.e. 21 July CHF 489.3 bn vs CHF 494.7 bn prior
Spain elections : no clear winner, though general election results in Spain leave future of next government up in the air
Looks like China is decoupling from US consulting firms. The problem is, without due diligence, companies can’t fulfil their legal requirements which will prevent them from further investments in/Thread
Ukraine has recaptured 50% of the territory that Russia seized, Blinken says (really?)
Congress is investigating Ford's new EV battery deal with China. US lawmakers are concerned the deal exploits a loophole in new federal EV tax credits
Amsterdam is cracking down on cruise ships. The Dutch city is trying to limit tourism and pollution
US Economic Soft Landing Hinges On Fed’s Tolerance Of Inflation - BBG, Federal Reserve To Signal It Is Not Done Yet As It Raises Interest Rates Again - FT
U.S. 30y mortgage rates dropped for the first time in 4 weeks
Russia has attacked Ukrainian grain terminals in the Danube (including in Reni, which lies 200 meters across Romania on the other bank of the river). Moscow is trying to cripple all the Black Sea options for Kyiv, leaving it completely depended on Eastern European overland routes/BBG
China's Politburo: Domestic demand is insufficient, economic recovery will be 'tortuous'
Markets :
USD mixed, CROSSJPY's could well have peaked, #EURUSD peaked the other week on Knot's comments, CHF remains supreme, #JPY will move sharply either way going into/post BoJ, would almost favour a lower #EURJPY (ECB priced in, language softer, and eventually BoJ 'tweaks' YCC
Equity markets : risk of peaking, AI FOMO rally showing signs of peaking, nothing dramatic, but based on valuations, weak China macro, recent FOMO AI rally, NQ rebalancing... it should be no surprise if markets sell-off 10pct form here, bulls should welcome this
Crude trades on firm(er) side still
Today we wrap up last week's action and note that the market could be in for some consolidation after the recent blistering run higher, with key themes in focus, especially AI after NVDA posted an ugly week and Microsoft backed out all of its share gains from the Copilot AI story last week. It reports tomorrow, as does the luxury giant LVMH after luxury stocks posted an ugly week. Elsewhere, Germany's horrific initial July Manufacturing PMI print of 38.8 begs the question on why the ECB is even hiking this week. We can likely expect even more dovish shift from Lagarde and company as growth woes dominate the focus. A EURUSD reversal risk in in play this week if 1.1000 fails.
and a classic one.. just as mr market turned bearish usd....US Dollar Bearish Bets Hit Record High on Managers' Fed, Inflation Speculation - Bloomberg
Private equity (not all) tends to load up on debt, pay high dividend and pay no taxes... and then you get water companies situation where they UNDER invested for decades..
Opinion | Brexit, the Disaster No One Wants to Talk About - The New York Times (nytimes.com) it's actually quite strange that no party is even willing to talk about it ahead of elections next year, yet anyway..
Not just Italy..
what a terrible situation
EURJPY - below 155 area kex for the bears, similarly 138USDJPY
Comments