PBoC’s surprise confirms shift in deflation fight >>> following in FED's path....reflate!
16 Fed speakers this week! is this enough ? >>>Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari supports another 50bp rate cut this year and Fed's Goolsbee sees 'many more' rate cuts ahead
USD : WORTH LOOKING AT long-term charts, to remind ourselves how 'rangy' major pairs have been in recent years (yes USDJPY moved but..) >>> take #AUDUSD below as an example, key month, quarter-end close up next! GOLD keeps on trucking...
SPX500 : chances are we go on making new highs, low vols, slow melt-up case, as markets know the FED will be more aggressive on any signs of softer macro data, most importantly employment now, so we kind of have a FED put, watch ADP, JOLTS, NFP - it is all that matters now, as rates come down, equities loving it, as long as we do not talk 'recession' ! >>>> The market is currently pricing in over 2.00% Fed rate cuts within 12 months, the most since the Financial Crisis. This implies a 100% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs
Germany says it doesn't support a takeover of Commerzbank. “We have taken note of UniCredit’s actions. We do not support a takeover. We have communicated this to UniCredit,” a German FinMin official said. Barclays helped UniCredit quietly build Commerzbank stake, BBG reports >>> UniCredit to increase stake though
EZ PMIs are boosting the case for faster and/or larger #ECB cuts and the endorsement of a dovish bias. *Interesting this morning: "In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020", meanwhile in UK, softer but still much stronger than europe UK S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.9, and finally US S&P GLOBAL Sep manuf PMI AT 47
GOLD remains on track to break its decade-long September curse with XAU currently up close to 5%, supported by FOMO leading to very small pullbacks, a bumper 50 bps rate cut, and a softer USD/Saxo
UST's : very useful bond Thread below
At 5,700, the S&P 500 is now over 300 points above above the highest 2024 year-end price target from WS strategists and some 15% above the average target (4,860), and its only end of Sep ! with an election ahead of us >>>> Citi turns more pro-cyclical in its global asset allocation, preferring to fully participate in this Fed-induced risk-friendly environment, even as it maintains its view of an eventual hard landing in the US. Equities is moved to overweight, and US equities is moved to max overweight
Ed Yardeni, president at Yardeni Research, said he’s raising the odds of an “outright melt up” in stocks following the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis-point cut, but sees the Fed at risk of “overheating a warm economy"
World’s Top Banks Back Nuclear Energy #URA
PBoC beat mkt exp with a trio of RRR, policy rate and mortgage cuts, and an innovation in stock mkt support, echoing our view that Beijing is shifting approach on deflation. To exit deflation, more decisive housing and social welfare support is needed with central gov't leveraging
Ole S Hansen on X: "#Gold remains on track to break its decade-long September curse with XAU currently up close to 5%, supported by FOMO leading to very small pullbacks, a bumper 50 bps rate cut, and a softer USD. https://t.co/kYOipORVTc" / X
Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on X: "These reports also suggest 🇪🇺 CPI Servces component was artificially boosted by OG in August. A downward normalization is expected in Sep., with headline likely falling below 2% (due to base effects). https://t.co/TCSSVq1LvU" / X
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