Spanish and French inflation higher this morning, Spain Harmonized CPI 6.1% YoY in Feb vs +5.7% expected. France 7.2% (accelerating, like US PCE on Friday)Harmonized CPI 6.1% YoY in Feb vs 7% expected, will keep pressure on ECB hawks, markets now pricing in a 4% peak rate in Q1 2024..
The Brexit deal is just the beginning of the repair work..UK assets have been unloved for years, they are under-owned, will help the heeling from here on. It seems Rishi is about to solve the impossible Rubik's cube of politics! and The Tory graph already saying : A sharp fall in energy prices and brighter economic outlook will hand Jeremy Hunt a £56bn boost in next month's Budget, a leading think tank has said, as campaigners demand tax cuts.
The real moral hazard, beneficiaries of QE (ZIRP, NIRP, low rates) have been elected PM's and government's who have been able to hide behind every issue by promising more, can't do this anymore, back to the real world (which is a good thing for the many..)
Fed's Jefferson: Raising the 2% inflation target risked undermining the Fed's credibility - I am committed (no choice then..) to lowering inflation to 2%
Incoming BOJ deputy head brushes aside near-term tweak to easy policy
After buying a record ¥20tn of JBGs last month, the BoJ now owns more than 100 per cent of all on-the-run 10-year Japanese government bonds. In fact it owns almost 140 per cent of the most recent issue. The lower house of Japan's parliament passed a record $839.3 billion budget for the next fiscal year that begins in April, a ruling party lawmaker said, a move that would further strain the industrial world's heaviest debt burden
Hong Kong ends Covid mask mandate after 945 days to focus on economy
China's Pandemic Savings Pool - The strength of China’s economic rebound largely hinges on whether families and companies are willing to spend their cash hoard / WSJ
-Swiss watchdog finds Credit Suisse 'seriously breached' obligations in Greensill affair..
EU's Gentiloni: The economic outlook is less pessimistic than originally thought -EU is likely to avoid a severe recession
Japan to promote gas, LNG, hydrogen investments during G7 presidency - METI
Ukraine-Russia war latest: China 'very clearly' taken Russia's side in war, says US
Fed says overvalued commercial real estate poses risk to financial system...and who created this bubble in the first place with all this QE last 10years?
Markets:
German 10y yields hit highest level since 2011
NASDAQ vs US 10 year (inverted) continues trading with the huge gap (let me know if you want the chart..). Equities began to care about the rates narrative last week (again), so don't expect massive equity bounces unless rates start moving lower, overnight, HSI giving more ground lower together with other Chinese eq markets.
GBPCHF - I'm sure you will be able to make a better chart (see below)...but we should be on our way towards 1.25-1.30 (interest rates diff + UK-EU deal) - pick your preferred GBP pair
Rates overall higher for longer, still extending hikes and Terminal rates higher across board really, lead this morning by Europe, many thought Dec inflation data was seasonal, looks like it wasn't j
Stay defensive on long duration assets, in particular
Morning Brew February 28 2023 | Saxo Bank (home.saxo) - ECB rate path up to 3.75% by Feb 2024..
Biden: UK, EU trade agreement over Northern Ireland ‘essential step’ to maintaining Good Friday Agreement | The Hill ...and opens up much higher probability of US/UK trade deal
never ending, don't blame the foot soldiers of the current and last few years, look above..
never understood the footy business, if these clubs were managed like a proper business, many wouldn't be able to exist and be run the way they have been for ...years
GBPCHF - I'm sure you will be able to make a better chart...but we should be on our way towards 1.25-1.30 (interest rates diff + UK-EU deal)
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